U.S. Unemployment Report

• The U.S. added 50,000 jobs in December, with 37,000 from the private sector and the remainder from government hiring
• The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, down from 4.5% in November, marking the first decline in seven months
• Hourly wages rose 0.3% in December, lifting year-over-year wage growth to 3.8% from 3.6% in November

U.S. Trade Deficit

• The U.S. trade deficit fell 39% in October to $29.4 billion, the lowest level in 16 years, down from $48.1 billion in September
• Exports rose 2.6% and imports fell 3.2% in October, with a surge in gold exports and a sharp drop in pharmaceutical imports driving the change
• Despite the October drop, the trade deficit totaled $782.8 billion in the first 10 months of 2025, up 8% from the same period in 2024

U.S. Consumer Credit

• Consumer credit outstanding rose 1% (SAAR) in November, while year-over-year growth slowed to 0.5%
• Revolving credit (credit cards) fell 1.9%, while nonrevolving credit rose 2%, driven by auto and student loans
• Student loan stress increased, with about 5 million borrowers in default and serious delinquencies (90+ days) at a record high in Q3

U.S. Tariff & Trade

• After declining to rule on the IEEPA tariffs last Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court said Wednesday, January 14, will be its next opinion release day, leaving uncertainty for importers on the fate of the tariffs
• U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued an interim final rule requiring all duty, fee, and interest refunds to be issued electronically beginning in February, ending paper check refunds and requiring importers to enroll in the CBP ACE Portal to receive future refunds
• India announced reforms to streamline import quality checks, including reduced paperwork, shorter approval timelines, and fewer inspections, addressing U.S. concerns over burdensome requirements as New Delhi seeks progress on potential relief from Trump-era tariffs; U.S. imports from India have declined roughly 8 percent year over year in October
• U.S. ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 2.02 million TEU in November, down 2.3 percent from October and 6.5 percent year over year; December volumes are projected at 1.99 million TEU, a 6.6 percent annual decline, reflecting seasonal slowdown and elevated late-2024 import pull-forward tied to port disruption concerns

Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., increased to 208,000 in the week ended January 2, up 8,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 211,750 down 7,250 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims - those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week - increased at 1.914 million in the week ended December 26. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.574 trillion in the week ended January 9, down $67.0 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.229 trillion, up $1.0 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.04 trillion in the week, down $13.2 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.43 trillion as of January 9, an increase of 6.3% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $30.81 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.67 trillion

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $30.49 trillion as of June 30, 2025, an increase of 1.48% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 3.30% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 123.00% as of September 30, a increase of 2.83% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 2.7% in November year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.2% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after flat 0.0% in October.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in November, after remaining flat 0.0% in October.
• Core CPI increased 2.6% for the 12 months ending November.

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 1.9% in November from the same month a year earlier, and decreased -0.2% in November month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 3.7% in November from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.5% in November month over month.

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 0.7% in November after decreasing 0.0% in October
• The energy commodities index rose 1.2% over the last 12 months
• The energy services index rose 0.1% in November after decreasing 0.0% in October
• The energy services index rose 7.4% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index rose 0.9% over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index rose 11.3% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 6.9% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 9.1% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $2556.84 per 40ft container for the week of January 9
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (35.9%) over the last 12 months.

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.2% in November after decreasing 0.0% in October
• The rent index increased 0.2% in November after decreasing 0.0% in October
• The index for lodging away from home decreased (8.2%) in November after decreasing 0.0% in October.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.64%, flat 0.00% year to date

Middle East

• Iran’s army announced it would join the crackdown on nationwide protests, marking an escalation from earlier reliance on police and paramilitary forces, as demonstrations spread to about 180 cities and increasingly call for an end to the theocratic system
• Rights groups report at least 65 people killed and more than 2,300 arrested so far, with security forces using live ammunition, tear gas launchers, and shotguns, amid widespread internet and phone shutdowns that limit independent verification
• Israel has prepared plans for a new ground operation in Gaza as Hamas refuses to fully disarm under the U.S.-backed cease-fire framework, while Hamas is rebuilding its military capabilities, including fighters, finances, and tunnel infrastructure, according to Arab and Israeli officials
• Hamas has received new cash—stored reserves, taxation, and transfers linked to Iran—allowing it to resume paying fighters and recruit members, as Israel estimates the group has about 20,000 fighters and roughly 60,000 rifles

Europe

• German factory orders rose 5.6% month over month in November, sharply beating expectations for a 0.8% decline, driven mainly by large-scale orders in fabricated metal products and transport equipment, including military vehicles and aircraft
• Foreign and domestic orders both increased as tariff uncertainty eased, though excluding large-scale orders overall demand rose a more modest 0.7%, and sentiment indicators such as PMI and Ifo continued to weaken
• Eurozone retail sales rose 0.2% in November, matching forecasts and marking a third consecutive monthly increase, with gains in France, Spain, and Italy offsetting a decline in Germany
• Despite the recent uptick, consumer demand remains weak, as confidence fell again in December and high household savings and past price and rate shocks continue to weigh on spending

China

• China’s foreign-exchange reserves rose by $11.5 billion in December to $3.358 trillion, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar & closing a year marked by a record $1 trillion trade surplus
• The yuan appreciated 3.3% against the dollar in 2025 and recently strengthened past the 7.00 per dollar level for the first time since May 2023
• China immediately banned exports of unspecified dual-use goods to Japan in retaliation for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan
• The move could hit Japanese manufacturing by restricting supplies such as rare earths and advanced components

Isarel

• Israel formally recognized Somaliland to gain intelligence cooperation and secure strategic Red Sea shipping lanes near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, marking a bold diplomatic move that expands its influence into the Horn of Africa despite international condemnation

Russia

• Russia escalated tensions with the U.S. by sending a submarine and additional naval assets to escort an empty oil tanker formerly known as the Bella 1—now re-registered under a Russian flag—after the U.S. Coast Guard pursued the vessel for allegedly transporting sanctioned illicit oil

Thailand

• Thailand and Cambodia agreed to an immediate cease-fire to halt weeks of deadly border clashes that have killed at least 22 civilians

Nigeria

• The U.S. carried out missile strikes on Christmas Day against two alleged Islamic State camps in Nigeria, firing more than a dozen missiles from a Navy warship and killing multiple militants, according to U.S. officials

Venezuela

• The U.S. Coast Guard is pursuing the sanctioned oil tanker Bella 1 in the Atlantic, assembling elite boarding teams and military support after the vessel refused inspection and fled; U.S. officials say the ship is linked to Iranian and Venezuelan oil networks and is under a judicial seizure order

Canada

• British Columbia’s Supreme Court ruled that a group of indigenous tribes held the right to about 730 acres of privately held land. The ruling may open the doors for other indigenous groups to press their claims, causing uncertainty in the real estate market

Australia

• At least 11 people were killed when two gunmen opened fire during a Hanukkah event at Sydney’s Bondi Beach in what authorities called a terrorist attack targeting the Jewish community; one suspect was killed and another is in critical condition

Oil Prices

• WTI: $59.12 per barrel
• +3.14% WoW; (18.60%) YTD; (19.37%) YoY
• Brent: $63.34 per barrel
• +4.26% WoW; (16.43%) YTD; (17.65%) YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.8 million bpd for the week ended January 2, down 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 545, up 3 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 419.1 million barrels, up 1.5% YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 94.7% for the week, down from 94.7% in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 4.953 million barrels per day, down (3.5%) YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices were $2.80 per gallon in the week of January 9, down (8.6%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast were $2.90, down (6.6%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest were $2.67, down (11.5%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast were $2.47, down (10.3%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region were $2.53, down (16.2%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast were $3.85, down (2.2%) YoY.
• Motor gasoline inventories were up by 7.7 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories totaled 242.0 million barrels, down (0.6%) YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.00 million bpd, down (3.0%) YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline was 8.170 million bpd, down (1.9%) YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by 5.6 million in the week of January 9.
• Total distillate inventories were 129.3 million barrels, down (2.1%) YoY.
• Distillate production averaged 5.315 million bpd, up 2.5% YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.195 million bpd in the week, down (16.8%) YoY.

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories decreased by 119 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 3,256 billion cubic feet, up 4.5% YoY.

High-yield:

High yield bond yields decreased 4bps to 6.58% and spreads decreased 5bps to 295bps. Leveraged loan yields decreased 8bps to 7.78% and spreads decreased 9bps to 446bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 27bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 27bps. 10yr treasury yields decreased 2bps to 4.17%. Leveraged loans and high yield bonds posted gains during the week, supported by strong U.S. economic momentum and early-January seasonal tailwinds, as fresh investor inflows and light new issuance drove spreads tighter.

Week ended 01/09/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 01/09/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

• Most recent defaults include: Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025), New Fortress Energy ($3.5bn, 11/15/2025), Packers Sanitation Services ($1.2bn, 11/5/2025), Office Properties Trust ($1.7bn, 10/31/25), GPS Hospitality ($400mn, 10/30/25), Jordan Health Services ($1.0bn, 10/15/25), Astra Acquisition ($1bn, 9/30/25), and First Brands ($4.4bn, 9/29/25).

CLOs: 

Week ended 01/09/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix: 

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Source: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM 

Diagram L: CLO Economics 

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

ZCGC Real Estate

• The U.S. housing market is shifting
• The share of outstanding mortgages with rates of 6% or higher has reached 21.2%, the highest since 2015, nearly tripling since 2022
• Meanwhile, mortgages below 3% have fallen 4.4 percentage points to 20.2%, the lowest since 2021
• For the first time in years, more homeowners now carry 6%+ rates than sub-3% rates.  
• With existing rates increasingly close to today's ~6.15% 30-year average, more owners are willing to sell
• This is gradually reducing the mortgage lock-in effect, which has kept home turnover near 30-year lows
• Higher inventory could follow as the incentive to stay put fades for a growing number of homeowners

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index