Personal Income, Spending, & PCE Index

• Over the past year, the PCE price index rose 4.1% in May, its highest annual reading since April 2023 and more than double the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. Core PCE inflation increased 3.4% year over year.
• The PCE price index increased 0.4% in May, matching April's monthly gain. Energy led price increases, with energy goods and services rising 4.0%, while financial services and insurance advanced 1.2%.
• Personal income and consumer spending each increased 0.7% in May.

New Home Sales

• New single-family home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 in May, down 6.8% from 622,000 a year earlier. The decline marks the second consecutive monthly drop as elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressures continue to weigh on demand.
• The median sales price of new homes sold in May was $424,900, unchanged from a year earlier.

GDP Third Estimate (Q1 2026)

• Q1 2026 GDP growth was revised up to 2.1% from the second estimate of 1.6%, surpassing the 2.0% consensus, primarily due to a downward revision to imports.
• Consumer spending growth was also revised lower, with spending increasing just 0.5% in Q1, the slowest pace in four years.
• Real GDI was revised up to 1.2% from 0.9%, lifting the average of GDP and GDI growth to 1.7%. However, the gap between GDP and GDI suggests income growth remained weaker than headline GDP, indicating softer underlying support for consumer spending.

Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 215,000 in the week ended June 19, down 12,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 224,250, up 750 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims — those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week — increased to 1.821 million in the week ended June 12. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed's Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.736 trillion in the week ended June 26, down $0.8 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.488 trillion, up $6.5 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $1.96 trillion in the week, down $1.4 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $39.31 trillion as of June 26, an increase of 8.5% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $31.59 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.69 trillion.

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $31.82 trillion as of March 31, 2026, an increase of 1.26% from the previous quarter, and an increase of 5.92% from the previous year.
• The total public-debt-to-GDP ratio was 122.77% as of March 31, an increase of 1.23% from the previous year.

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer price index rose 4.2% in May year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.5% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.6% in April.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in May, after rising 0.4% in April.
• Core CPI increased 2.9% for the 12 months ending May.

Food & Beverages:

• The food-at-home index increased 2.7% in May from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.1% in May month over month.
• The food-away-from-home index increased 3.7% in May from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in May month over month.

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 6.7% in May after increasing 5.6% in April.
• The energy commodities index rose 40.6% over the last 12 months.
• The energy services index rose 0.7% in May after increasing 0.9% in April.
• The energy services index rose 5.3% over the last 12 months.
• The gasoline index rose 40.5% over the last 12 months.
• The fuel oil index rose 11.7% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 5.9% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 3.0% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain:

• Drewry's composite World Container Index increased to $3,968.87 per 40ft container for the week of June 18.
• Drewry's composite World Container Index increased by 12.0% over the last 12 months.

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.3% in May after increasing 0.6% in April.
• The rent index increased 0.3% in May after increasing 0.6% in April.
• The index for lodging away from home increased 2.6% in May after increasing 4.0% in April.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.63%, down (0.01%) year to date.

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Middle East

• On June 26, the US launched fresh strikes on Iran, one day after Tehran attacked a Singapore-flagged commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. A senior US official said the ceasefire remains intact and that Friday's strikes were retaliatory.
• Iran's attack followed an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warning that vessels using an alternative route near Oman instead of Iranian waters could be targeted. Tehran also required vessels to notify Iranian authorities before transiting the area. Strait of Hormuz transits fell to 54 on Thursday from 70 on Wednesday.
• A WSJ investigation found that Iran is increasingly using China's financial system to evade sanctions and reduce exposure to US oversight. Daily transaction volume through China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has climbed to $115 billion over the three months since February, up from an average of 680 billion yuan the previous year.
• Iran is increasingly monetizing its oil exports outside the US dollar. China now buys more than 90% of Iran's crude, paying in yuan and channeling proceeds through CIPS and special-purpose vehicles to finance goods imports and engineering contracts.

Europe

• The EU approved the tariff cuts pledged under last year's trade agreement with the US but continues to reject US demands to amend its digital markets, deforestation, methane emissions, and carbon tax regulations.
• In a joint letter, energy ministers from Europe's major gas suppliers warned EU leaders that there is no viable path to complying with the bloc's upcoming methane emissions standards.
• President Trump threatened to raise tariffs on European imports if the EU proceeds with plans to impose new taxes on US technology companies, despite the bloc's approval of tariff cuts under last year's US-EU trade agreement.
• The European Central Bank signaled that further interest rate increases may be needed to return inflation to its 2% target.

China

• China is advancing legislation that would allow state prosecutors to file civil suits against foreign companies and individuals deemed to harm Chinese interests. The law would expand Beijing's counter-sanctions toolkit to include exit bans, injunctions, and financial penalties, with passage expected by year-end.
• The proposed law would significantly increase legal risks for foreign companies operating in China. Businesses complying with US and Western sanctions could face civil liability in China, further intensifying pressure to navigate competing regulatory regimes.
• China blacklisted MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, the two Pentagon-backed companies central to US efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths, signaling Beijing's willingness to target America's critical minerals strategy.
• China also barred 46 US defense companies, including Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Boeing, from government procurement while exempting US-invested manufacturers operating in China. The move suggests Beijing is calibrating its retaliation to pressure US exporters while minimizing disruption to its own supply chains.

Venezuela

• Twin magnitude 7+ earthquakes struck Venezuela on June 25-26, killing 900+ and leaving 51,000 missing — citizens conducted their own rescue operations amid a slow government response, putting Rodríguez's leadership under its first major test and casting uncertainty over the Trump administration's partnership with her and the prospect of US investment reopening in the country

Colombia

• Far-right populist Abelardo de la Espriella — a criminal defense attorney who has represented paramilitary commanders and money launderers — captured 44% of the vote in Colombia's first-round presidential election, setting up a June 21 runoff against leftist Iván Cepeda that presents voters with the starkest ideological choice in the country's modern political history

India

• Google's $15 billion AI data center hub in water-stressed Visakhapatnam, India — backed by $2.3 billion in state subsidies and partnerships with Adani and Bharti Airtel — highlights the intensifying geopolitical race to anchor U.S. AI infrastructure in high-growth emerging markets, even as local displacement and resource competition spark growing backlash that could complicate future build-outs across the developing world

Africa

• The WHO declared a global health emergency over an Ebola outbreak in Congo and Uganda, with around 80 deaths and over 200 suspected cases recorded — including cases in both countries' capitals — involving the rare Bundibugyo strain for which no approved vaccine or treatment currently exists

Cuba

• CIA Director Ratcliffe made a rare visit to Havana to warn Cuban officials they have a limited window to engage with the Trump administration, as the island faces severe fuel shortages, widespread blackouts, and growing street protests

Australia

• Australia is permanently diversifying its oil imports beyond Middle East suppliers and accelerating its renewable energy transition, even as it secures emergency fuel reserves to buffer against the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption

Canada

• Canada approved Enbridge's ~$3 billion Westcoast pipeline expansion, adding 300 million cubic feet per day of capacity as part of PM Carney's push to reduce U.S. trade dependence and boost Asian energy exports

Italy

• Trump publicly broke with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni — once his closest European ally — after she refused to send forces to the Strait of Hormuz and called his attacks on Pope Leo "unacceptable," leaving her isolated on both sides of the Atlantic

Japan

• Japan will release an additional 20 days' worth of oil reserves in early May to stabilize energy prices, as the country relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its crude imports and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked

New Zealand

• New Zealand plans to spend roughly $7 billion on its military, including enhanced strike capabilities and new helicopters, aiming to reverse military attrition by recruiting 2,500 personnel in the coming year

Oil Prices

• WTI: $69.23 per barrel
• (9.62%) WoW; (7.59%) YTD; +6.64% YoY
• Brent: $71.99 per barrel
• (10.65%) WoW; (8.35%) YTD; +6.29% YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.8 million bpd for the week ended June 19, up 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 573, up 10 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 412.1 million barrels, down (0.7%) YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 96.1% for the week, down from 96.7% in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 5.134 million barrels per day, down (6.3%) YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $3.90 per gallon in the week of June 26, up 21.6% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $3.49, up 22.9% YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.81, up 20.3% YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Gulf Coast amounted to $3.54, up 20.4% YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $3.98, up 20.4% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $5.19, up 20.8% YoY.
• Motor gasoline inventories were up by 2.1 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 216.3 million barrels, down (5.1%) YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.49 million bpd, down (6.2%) YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline averaged 8.775 million bpd, down (9.4%) YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by 3.1 million in the week of June 26.
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 106.1 million barrels, up 0.7% YoY.
• Distillate production averaged 5.230 million bpd, up 9.2% YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.633 million bpd in the week, down (6.9%) YoY.

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 76 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 2,835 billion cubic feet, down (2.2%) YoY.

High-yield:

High yield bond yields increased 10bps to 7.22% and spreads increased 19bps to 313bps. Leveraged loan yields remained the same at 8.88% and spreads increased 11bps to 500bps. WTD high yield bond returns were negative 7bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were negative 15bps. 10yr treasury yields decreased 8bps to 4.37%. HY and LL spreads widened amid broader market caution and oil price weakness, partially offset by declining treasury yields. Software loans continued to lag, widening to a fresh all-time high, reflecting ongoing fundamental pressure on the sector.

Week ended 06/26/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

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Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 06/26/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity:

• Most recent defaults include: QVC Group ($2.2bn, 4/16/2026), Cumulus Media ($641mn, 03/05/2026), Trinseo ($390mn, 02/17/2026), Beasley Broadcasting Group ($189mn, 02/01/2026), Nine Energy Service ($300mn, 02/01/2026), Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026), Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), and United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025).

CLOs:

Week ended 06/26/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:

S&P and Moody's High Yield Ratings

Source: Bloomberg

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Source: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns

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Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

Source: JP Morgan Default Monitor

Diagram L: CLO Economics

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Source: S&P Capital IQ

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Source: Pitchbook

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Source: Pitchbook

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

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Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

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Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Source: Bloomberg

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Source: Bloomberg

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads

Source: Bloomberg

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