U.S. Unemployment

• The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September—up from 4.3% in August—reaching a four-year high
• The increase in unemployment is partially due to an increase in the labor force. An estimated 906,000 people entered the labor force in the last two months
• The unemployment rate could also be impacted by seasonal factors, as school employees and students end their temporary summer jobs

Factory Orders

• New orders for manufactured goods in August increased $8.4 billion, or 1.4%, the first monthly increase since June
• Transportation equipment led the increase, rising $8.1 billion, or 7.9%, in August, ending two months of consecutive declines
• New orders for manufactured nondurable goods decreased $0.3 billion, or 0.1%, in August

Consumer Sentiment

• Consumer sentiment decreased 2.6 index points from October to November, driven by frustration over high prices and weakening incomes
• Consumers with the largest stock holdings dropped about 2 index points from October, which is likely a reaction to market declines in recent weeks
• Year-ahead inflation expectations decreased for the third consecutive month, from 4.6% to 4.5%

U.S. Tariff & Trade

• On November 20, Trump signed an executive-order eliminating 40% tariffs on Brazilian agricultural goods (beef, coffee, cocoa, fruits), effective Nov. 13;  though other goods remain subject to 50% tariffs
• The U.S. trade deficit narrowed 24% to $59.6B in  August as reciprocal tariffs reduced import volumes by roughly 5%, with the adjustment driven largely by weaker consumer-goods and industrial-input inflows
• China purchased ~840,000 MT of US soybeans on Monday, its largest single day buy since January, with state owned COFCO executing the deal despite US beans running about $1 per bushel above Brazilian prices and marking the first major purchase since the Trump Xi summit
• India and the U.S. are reportedly nearing agreement on the first tranche of a trade deal aimed at rolling back the steep 50% U.S. tariffs on Indian goods, with Indian officials saying the reciprocal-tariff package is “more or less near closure.” President Trump likewise stated the U.S. is “pretty close” to a “fair trade deal” and indicated he will lower tariffs on Indian goods at “some point.”

Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 220,000 in the week ended November 14, down 8,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 224,250, down 3,000 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims - those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week - increased at 1.974 millon in the week ended November 7. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.555 trillion in the week ended November 21, down $25.2 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.192 trillion, down $0.7 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.07 trillion in the week, down $0.0 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.33 trillion as of November 21, an increase of 6.3% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $30.71 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.47 trillion.

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S GDP stands at $30.49 trillion as of June 30, 2025, an increase of 1.48% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 4.59% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 118.78% as of June 30, a decrease of -0.72% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.0% in September year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4% in August.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in September, after rising 0.3% in August.
• Core CPI increased 3.0% for the 12 months ending September.

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.7% in September from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in September month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 3.7% in September from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.1% in September month over month.

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 3.8% in September after increasing 1.7% in August
• The energy commodities index fell (0.4%) over the last 12 months
• The energy services index fell (0.8%) in September after decreasing (0.3%) in August
• The energy services index rose 6.4% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index fell (0.5%) over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index fell 4.1% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 5.1% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 11.7% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $1,851.84 per 40ft container for the week of November 21
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (45.7%) over the last 12 months.

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.2% in September after increasing 0.4% in August
• The rent index increased 0.2% in September after increasing 0.4% in August
• The index for lodging away from home decreased (1.4%) in September after increasing 0.3% in August.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.88% , down (0.45%) year to date.

Middle East

• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday. President Trump announced that the U.S. plans to sell F-35 jet fighters to Saudi Arabia, a move that would potentially diminish Israel’s military advantage in the region
• In addition, the Commerce Department approved the sale of up to 70,000 advanced artificial intelligence chips to two companies in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The approvals are a reversal of policy; administration officials had previously rejected the idea of exporting chips to state-backed companies over security concerns
• Despite cease-fires in place, Israel hit Hamas in Gaza and Lebanon this week. The Israeli military claimed that militants in Gaza had fired toward Israeli troops, justifying the response
• While the cease-fire is still in effect, Israel and the U.S. have expressed frustration with the lack of progress toward disarmament by both Hamas and Hezbollah, leaving the cease-fires in their early stages

Europe

• A rail line between Warsaw and Lublin—a vital supply line for providing aid to Ukraine—was sabotaged near the village of Mika. Polish officials accused Russia of orchestrating the event. The incident adds to the growing list of suspected attacks targeting European infrastructure in recent months
• The Trump administration drafted a peace plan for the war in Ukraine. The plan requires Kyiv to cede the eastern Donbas region, along with other territories currently behind Russian lines
• In addition, Ukraine’s military would be capped at 600,000 personnel, and it would no longer be permitted to join NATO
• President Trump seeks a response from Ukraine by Thursday of next week. President Volodymyr Zelensky previously rejected many of the concessions made in the draft peace proposal

China

• The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission issued its annual report to Congress, warning that China could exploit U.S. reliance on its supply chains for pharmaceuticals and electrical equipment
• The report urged U.S. policymakers to mandate industry disclosure of vulnerabilities to Chinese supply chains for a better understanding of the full risk to the United States
• According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s retail sales increased by 2.9% in October year-over-year, down from 3.0% in September. October is the fifth consecutive month of deceleration in retail sales growth
• Property investment decreased by 14.7% from January to October year-over-year, an exacerbation of the trend observed over the first three quarters of the year

Israel

• Israel asked the International Criminal Court to nullify an arrest warrant against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu because of sexual assault allegations facing the Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan, which Israel claims impacted Khan’s decision to seek the warrant

Argentina

• A planned $20 billion bailout for Argentina from U.S. banks was shelved as they shift to a smaller, short-term loan package. Banks are now considering a $5 billion solution to help Argentina meet a $4 billion debt payment in January

UK

• U.K. markets fell sharply after reports that the Labour government may drop planned income-tax hikes, raising investor concerns about fiscal credibility and a growing budget shortfall ahead of the Nov. 26 budget

Tanzania

• Tanzania’s government, led by President Samia Suluhu Hassan, crushed Gen Z–driven protests over a disputed election and rising living costs with lethal force—opposition groups

Venezuela 

• The Caribbean Sea is now host to an expanded U.S. naval deployment — including the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group and other warships — aimed at countering alleged drug-cartel movement, heightening tensions with Venezuela and its President Nicolás Maduro over perceived regime-change risks

Sudan

• Sudan’s civil war has taken a brutal turn in Darfur, where the Rapid Support Forces – an Arab-led militia backed by the U.A.E. and armed with Chinese drones – are carrying out mass killings and executions of civilians in El Fasher, prompting warnings of a potential genocide

France

• French police arrested suspects in the Louvre Museum heist, including one attempting to flee France from Charles de Gaulle Airport. Four thieves used a truck-mounted lift and angle grinders to steal eight pieces of jewelry valued at $102 million USD

India

• After President Trump claimed that India agreed to stop buying Russian oil, New Delhi issued a carefully worded response—neither confirming nor directly denying the statement—to avoid jeopardizing ongoing trade talks with Washington. India emphasized its efforts to diversify energy sources and expand U.S. imports, while analysts noted that reducing reliance on Russian crude, which supplies about one-third of India’s oil, would be difficult and costly in the near term

Oil Prices

• WTI: $58.06 per barrel‍
• (3.38%) WoW; (19.05%) YTD; (15.70%) YoY
• Brent: $62.56 per barrel
• (2.84%) WoW; (16.18%) YTD; (14.08%) YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.8 million bpd for the week ended November 14, down 0.2 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 554, up 5 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 424.2 million barrels, down (1.0%) YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 90.0% for the week, up from 89.4% in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 5.222 million barrels per day, down (2.2%) YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices were $3.08 per gallon in the week of November 21, up 0.7% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast were $3.07, down 1.4% YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest were $2.99, up 1.0% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast were $2.70, down 1.1% YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region were $3.08, up 1.2% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast were $4.26, up 6.2% YoY.
• Motor gasoline inventories were up by 2.3 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories were 207.4 million barrels, down 2.3% YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.27 million bpd, down 4.9% YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline was 8.528 million bpd, up 0.3% YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by 0.2 million in the week of November 21
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 111.1 million barrels, down (3.2%) YoY
• Distillate production averaged 4.911 million bpd, down (3.6%) YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.882 million bpd in the week, up 4.4% YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories decreased by 14 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 3,946 billion cubic feet, down (0.5%) YoY.

High-yield:

High yield bond yields increased 6bps to 7.09% and spreads increased 9bps to 349bps. Leveraged loan yields decreased 1bp to 7.91% and spreads increased 4bp to 463bps. WTD high yield bond returns were negative 12bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were negative 9bps. 10yr treasury yields decreased 1bps to 4.10%. High yield and leveraged loan spreads widened, driven by a mixed September payroll report, hawkish FOMC minutes, and modest fund outflows.

Week ended 11/21/2025

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 11/21/2025

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity:

• Most recent defaults include: Office Properties Trust ($1.7bn, 10/31/25), GPS Hospitality ($400mn, 10/30/25), Jordan Health Services ($1.0bn, 10/15/25), Astra Acquisition ($1bn, 9/30/25), First Brands ($4.4bn, 9/29/25), Spirit Airlines ($852mn, 8/29/25), ModivCare ($1.1bn, 8/20/25), Anastasia Beverly Hills ($606mn, 8/11/25), Claire’s Stores ($506mn, 8/6/25), Maverick Gaming ($215mn, 7/17/25), and Del Monte Foods ($864mn, 7/2/25).

CLOs:

Week ended 11/21/2025

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note:High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

‍Diagram L: CLO Economics

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts

Diagram R: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram S: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram T: SOFR CURVE

Diagram U: CMBS Spreads

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index