Retail Sales

• The S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI jumped to 57.0 from August's 53.9, dramatically beating the 53.6 consensus and marking the strongest improvement since May 2022, with all five sub-components contributing to the gain
• Services PMI climbed to 58.7 from 56.5 — well above the 56.0 consensus and the strongest services expansion in over five years — pushing composite activity to 58.4, though growth was driven almost entirely by domestic demand as export orders stayed weak
• The strength has a cost: input prices rose at the fastest rate since October 2022 on higher fuel and transport costs, and backlogs of uncompleted orders grew at the fastest pace since May 2022 — a combination suggesting firms are gaining pricing power just as the Fed is trying to cool inflation, not exactly the read policymakers wanted a week after hiking rates

New Home Sales

• New single-family home sales surged 6.4% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 — the highest level since December 2025 and dramatically ahead of the 615-620K consensus — with July's figure revised up to 643,000 from the initially reported 607,000
• The gain was driven almost entirely by builder incentives rather than organic demand strength: the median new-home price fell 5.8% year-over-year to $393,700, as builders leaned on price cuts, rate buydowns, and closing-cost assistance to move inventory against a 30-year mortgage rate that hit 6.95% in mid-September, the highest since January 2025
• Despite the headline beat, sales remain 2.0% below year-ago levels, inventory sits unchanged at 483,000 homes (8.5 months' supply), and a National Association of Home Builders survey showed builder expectations deteriorating considerably in September — making this look more like a one-month snapback on discounting than a genuine demand turnaround

Durable Goods Orders

• New orders for durable goods were essentially flat in August at $338.6 billion (0.0% vs. -0.3% consensus), following a 0.9% July increase, with transportation equipment — down for the third time in four months — driving the modest decline via a 4.3% drop in non-defense aircraft orders
• Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.3%, and non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft — the closely watched proxy for business investment — jumped 1.6%, well above the 0.5% forecast and July's 0.6% gain, a genuinely encouraging signal on capex appetite
• The report landed alongside a disappointing University of Michigan final consumer sentiment reading of 48.1 (vs. 47.8 forecast but down sharply from 51.7 prior), reinforcing a split-screen economy: business investment intentions holding up even as consumer confidence continues to erode under persistent inflation and energy cost pressure

Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 197,000 in the week ended September 18, down 1,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 202,250, down 1,750 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims — those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week — increased at 1.719 million in the week ended September 11. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed's Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.748 trillion in the week ended September 25, up $1.2 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.558 trillion, up $3.6 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $1.91 trillion in the week, down $1.4 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $40.07 trillion as of September 25, an increase of 7.0% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $32.38 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.76 trillion.

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $32.49 trillion as of June 30, 2026, an increase of 1.95% from the previous quarter, & an increase of 6.56% from the previous year.
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 121.47% as of June 30, an increase of 2.69% from the previous year.

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.4% in August year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.4% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1% in July.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.3% in August, after rising 0.2% in July.
• Core CPI increased 2.4% for the 12 months ending August.

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.1% in August from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.0% in August month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 3.4% in August from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in August month over month.

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 4.2% in August after decreasing (2.9%) in July.
• The energy commodities index rose 28.0% over the last 12 months.
• The energy services index fell (0.6%) in August after increasing 0.1% in July.
• The energy services index rose 4.0% over the last 12 months.
• The gasoline index rose 27.4% over the last 12 months.
• The fuel oil index rose 52.0% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 3.8% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 4.4% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain:

• Drewry's composite World Container Index decreased to $4,467.58 per 40ft container for the week of September 25.
• Drewry's composite World Container Index has increased by 153.7% over the last 12 months.

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.3% in August after increasing 0.1% in July.
• The rent index increased 0.3% in August after increasing 0.1% in July.
• The index for lodging away from home increased 0.5% in August after decreasing (3.4%) in July.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.88%, up 0.24% year to date.

Money Market Funds

• Money market fund assets stood at $7.94 trillion as of September 23, 2026, up 0.2% from the previous week, & up 8.5% from the previous year.

Middle East

• Oil prices fell Friday — Brent down 2.1% to $104.32, WTI down 2.3% to $92.41 (a 3.8% weekly loss) — as markets weighed reports that Iran submitted proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for the U.S. Navy lifting its blockade, though analysts remain deeply skeptical given four prior failed iterations of similar diplomatic overtures
• Saudi Arabia and the UAE are actively urging Washington to maintain pressure on Iran rather than ease sanctions or the naval blockade, while global oil inventories have fallen 507 million barrels since the conflict began and the conflict has cut crude supplies by an estimated 27% — with France now deploying soldiers and air-defense systems to protect Saudi Arabia's critical Yanbu refinery and pipeline terminal from Houthi attacks
• Iranian officials and lawmakers are now openly debating whether to build a nuclear weapon and withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty — a once-taboo discussion that has moved into public view, with a fast-track NPT withdrawal bill introduced in parliament this week and National Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaie publicly questioning why Iran shouldn't pursue a bomb if treaty compliance fails to prevent attacks
• Despite the sharpened rhetoric, experts note significant practical obstacles remain — the destruction of enrichment sites, killed nuclear scientists, and demonstrated U.S./Israeli penetration of Iran's program — leading analysts to assess the debate is currently more about capability ("whether we can") than near-term intent, with some officials instead favoring Iran's Hormuz chokehold as a lower-risk deterrent

Europe

• ArcelorMittal abandoned plans to restart operations at its Ukrainian subsidiary in Kryvyi Rih after four missile strikes over five weeks killed five people and injured 17 employees, and now expects to record a $1 billion impairment charge tied to damaged property, plant, and equipment
• The steelmaker has provided over $700 million to sustain the plant since the war began in 2022 and previously kept it break-even at the EBITDA level despite operating at reduced capacity, but the CEO said the company will now focus solely on preserving infrastructure until peace returns — a setback compounding similar damage at Ukrainian steelmaker Metinvest and forcing iron-ore producer Ferrexpo to raise emergency funding to avoid running out of cash by October
• Eurozone bank lending to businesses halved in August to €11 billion from €22 billion in July, as the ECB's rate hikes — to 2.25% in June and 2.5% earlier this month — began visibly constraining investment, with the annual growth rate of business loans slowing to 4.2% from 4.4%
• Longer-maturity lending (5+ years) fell most sharply, from €21 billion in June to €8 billion in August, while household lending actually rose to €19 billion — signaling the tightening is hitting corporate investment specifically rather than broader credit conditions, even as the eurozone economy has otherwise shown resilience to war-driven energy costs

China

• China has emerged as Iran's critical lifeline despite the U.S.-Iran war, sending roughly 1,300 dual-use shipments (including drone components) to Iran's defense ministry through June and becoming Tehran's sole major oil buyer, with Chinese front companies laundering the funds through China's financial system to evade U.S. oversight — support that has reportedly extended to satellite imagery linked to a strike that killed three American troops
• Washington has imposed hundreds of sanctions on Iran-linked entities, including some in China, but has stopped short of seriously confronting Beijing directly — a restraint driven by Trump's push for improved China relations following last year's tariff war, which demonstrated Beijing's leverage over U.S. access to rare earth materials
• Beneath the pageantry of Xi's Washington summit — his first in over a decade — Beijing's central priority was Taiwan, with Xi urging Trump to affirm the "correct position of opposing Taiwan independence" in the first line of China's official readout, a subtle but deliberate signal of what Xi actually came seeking
• A parallel WSJ investigation found Beijing has been quietly scripting outreach to Taiwan's opposition KMT party — including a mainland tour for new KMT chairwoman Cheng Li-wun capped by an audience with Xi — exploiting eroding Taiwanese trust in Washington (only 24% per a recent Brookings poll) and viewing Trump's unpredictability, including a stalled $14 billion arms package, as a "rare window" to shift the island's trajectory toward Beijing

Americas

• Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodríguez — Maduro's former deputy — completed a striking political transformation at the UN General Assembly, addressing world leaders alongside a warm meeting and photo op with Trump, who called Rodríguez's former boss an "outlaw dictator" while touting new U.S.-Venezuela oil deals with the phrase "to the victor belong the spoils"
• The rehabilitation has drawn sharp domestic criticism, with Florida lawmakers Rick Scott and Mario Díaz-Balart calling the Trump-Rodríguez photo a "slap in the face" and "kick in the gut," while opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado made three more failed attempts to return to Venezuela — her seventh overall — as Rodríguez leaves election timelines unresolved and over 60% of Venezuelans disapprove of her leadership
• Canadian PM Mark Carney told the WSJ a mutually beneficial U.S. trade deal remains possible following August's collapsed talks and subsequent tit-for-tat tariffs, but insisted Canada won't compromise its sovereignty or its freedom to pursue deeper ties with the EU — including cooperation on critical minerals, energy, and low-orbit satellite capabilities — as a hedge against U.S. pressure
• Carney framed the strategy as a broader response to weaponized economic interdependence, arguing sovereignty in an interconnected world requires diversified partnerships rather than isolation, while noting Canada's existing participation in the EU's SAFE defense-industry initiative and Arctic security cooperation with Baltic and Nordic NATO members already make it "a better partner for the United States"

Russia

• Russia's September 18-20 parliamentary election is designed to boost Putin's flagging approval — currently at 74%, down from over 80% during earlier war years — by putting him at the forefront of his party's campaign for the first time, with the antiwar Yabloko party barred from the ballot after its social-media following surged, effectively suppressing the only visible measure of war disapproval; state media has amplified reports of 100% turnout in remote villages and occupied Ukrainian territories to project unified support, even as independent pollsters show 70% of Russians view the political situation as "tense or worse"

Turkey

• Turkish regulators froze trading by seven asset managers and moved to liquidate 131 investment funds after a wave of implosions triggered by risky, leveraged bets on illiquid stocks — including one fund that reported 43,000% returns over two years before collapsing with $5 billion in assets and 100,000 investors; the crisis sent the Borsa Istanbul 100 down 8.5% for the week and prompted authorities to detain executives and refer 38 people to prosecutors, even as Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek insisted "there's no systemic risk" and the central bank injected liquidity to stabilize markets

Malaysia

• Former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak received a royal pardon allowing him to serve the remaining two years of his 1MDB-related abuse-of-power sentence under house arrest, conditional on paying a $12 million fine, though the pardon does not extend to a separate 15-year sentence for money laundering tied to the same $4.5 billion sovereign-wealth fund scandal that financed a superyacht and the film "The Wolf of Wall Street"; analysts say the move signals a broader shift among Malaysia's ruling elite toward moving past the scandal that ended his party's six-decade grip on power

North Korea

• North Korea has deployed thousands of workers, increasingly women, to Russian factories and warehouses to generate hard currency and deepen ties with Putin — with the Kim regime taking up to 90% of the roughly $7,500 average annual earnings — even as these workers face growing danger from Ukrainian long-range drone strikes, including attacks on Wildberries e-commerce warehouses that killed at least nine people and employed North Korean women; the relationship was further cemented this month with the opening of the first-ever road bridge between the two countries, while North Korean workers abroad generated up to $800 million last year funding Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs

Oil Prices

• WTI: $92.62 per barrel
• (7.66%) WoW; +23.63% YTD; +42.51% YoY
• Brent: $104.55 per barrel
• +0.65% WoW; +33.10% YTD; +50.61% YoY

U.S. Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.9 million bpd for the week ended September 18, down 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 599, up 4 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 426.4 million barrels, up 2.8% YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 94.0% for the week, down from 96.8% in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 7.058 million barrels per day, down (9.5%) YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $4.49 per gallon in the week of September 25, up 42.7% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $4.40, up 40.0% YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $4.48, up 44.7% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $4.07, up 44.8% YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $4.65, up 40.3% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $5.73, up 30.5% YoY.
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 1.7 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 206.0 million barrels, down (4.9%) YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.59 million bpd, down (1.2%) YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.847 million bpd, down (1.3%) YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by 0.4 million in the week of September 25.
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 107.4 million barrels, down (12.7%) YoY.
• Distillate production averaged 5.159 million bpd, up 3.5% YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.975 million bpd in the week, up 6.3% YoY.

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 53 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 3,351 billion cubic feet, down (4.2%) YoY.

High-yield:

High yield bond yields increased 38bps to 8.06% and spreads widened 23bps to 325bps. Leveraged loan yields increased 24bps to 9.48% and spreads increased 5bps to 473bps. WTD high yield bond returns were negative 88bps and WTD leveraged loan returns were negative 1bps. HY spreads widened as investors absorbed strong economic data, a spike in rates, and the second most active week for capital markets since April. Loans outperformed HY, since their floating-rate coupons benefit from the higher forward curve, and loan funds saw their biggest weekly inflow since February 2025.

Week ended 09/25/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 09/25/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity:

• Most recent defaults include: Hughes Satellite Systems ($1.5bn, 08/02/2026), Unifrax Investment ($3.1bn, 07/26/2026), Dish DBS ($9.8bn, 06/30/2026), QVC Group ($2.2bn, 04/16/2026), Cumulus Media ($641mn, 03/05/2026), Trinseo ($390mn, 02/17/2026), Beasley Broadcasting Group ($189mn, 02/01/2026), Nine Energy Service ($300mn, 02/01/2026), Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), and Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026).

CLOs:

Week ended 09/25/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:

S&P and Moody's High Yield Ratings

Source: Bloomberg

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Source: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

Source: JP Morgan Default Monitor

Diagram L: CLO Economics

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Source: S&P Capital IQ

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Source: Pitchbook

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Source: Pitchbook

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Source: Bloomberg

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Source: Bloomberg

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads

Source: Bloomberg