U.S. Retail Sales

• U.S. retail sales rose 1.7% in March, driven largely by a record 15.5% surge in gasoline station receipts tied to the U.S.-Israel war with Iran
• Higher fuel costs are expected to act as a drag on consumer spending going forward, crowding out discretionary purchases despite tax refunds providing some cushion 
• Strong sales data led economists at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to upgrade their Q1 GDP and consumer spending growth estimates 

Pending Home Sales

• Pending home sales rose 1.5% in March from the prior month, with the South and Northeast leading gains, though sales remain 1.1% below year-ago levels
• Economists attributed the increase to pent-up demand persisting despite elevated mortgage rates, stressing that more inventory is needed to convert that demand into closed sales 
• The South stood out as the strongest regional market, benefiting from a combination of price cuts over the past year and the nation's strongest job growth

U.S. Services PMI

• The April Flash Composite PMI rebounded to 52.0 from near-stagnation in March, though growth remains well below last year's pace
• Manufacturing hit a 47-month high, but gains were largely driven by panic buying ahead of expected supply shortages 
• Inflation hit its worst level since mid-2022, leaving the Fed caught between fighting rising prices and supporting weak underlying growth

Jobless Claims 

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., increased to 214,000 in the week ended April 17, up 6,000 from the prior week
• The four-week moving average was 210,750, up 750 from the prior week
• Continuing claims – those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week – increased at 1.821 million in the week ended April 10. This figure is reported with a one-week lag

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.707 trillion in the week ended April 24, up $1.7 billion from the prior week
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.413 trillion, up $5.8 billion from the prior week
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.00 trillion in the week, down $1.6 billion from the prior week

Total Public Debt 

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.94 trillion as of April 24, an increase of 7.5% from the previous year
• Debt held by the public was $31.29 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.63 trillion

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $31.44 trillion as of December 31, 2025, an increase of 1.11% from the previous quarter, & an increase of 5.42% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 122.49% as of December 31, an increase of 1.05% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.3% in March year over year
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.9% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.3% in February
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in March, after rising 0.2% in February
• Core CPI increased 2.6% for the 12 months ending March

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.0% in March from the same month a year earlier, and decreased -0.2% in March month over month
• The food away from home index increased 3.8% in March from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.2% in March month over month

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 21.3% in March after increasing 1.1% in February
• The energy commodities index rose 19.4% over the last 12 months
• The energy services index fell (0.2%) in March after decreasing (0.1%) in February
• The energy services index rose 5.0% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index rose 18.9% over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index rose 44.2% over the last 12 months
• The index for electricity rose 4.6% over the last 12 months
• The index for natural gas rose 6.4% over the last 12 months

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $2,308.78 per 40 ft container for the week of April 10
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has increased by 1.9% over the last 12 months

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.3% in March after increasing 0.2% in February
• The rent index increased 0.3% in March after increasing 0.2% in February
• The index for lodging away from home increased 4.6% in March after increasing 3.8% in February

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.64%, flat 0.00% year to date

Middle East

• Persian Gulf oil traffic remains near a standstill, pushing Brent crude above $100 a barrel as the U.S.-Iran tanker war drags on longer than markets initially expected 
• Even a swift resolution would take months or years to fully restore output, with Iraq facing the steepest recovery challenge due to damaged wells, departed workers, and limited export infrastructure
• The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed as Iran continues attacking commercial vessels and refuses to negotiate until the U.S. blockade is lifted, trapping over 10 million barrels of daily oil supply
• The IMF warns global growth could fall to 2% under a prolonged closure, with cascading effects already hitting Asian manufacturers, European airlines, and Gulf economies hardest

Europe

• The EU and U.S. signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate on critical minerals across exploration, extraction, and recycling 
• The two sides also outlined an action plan covering border-adjusted price floors, common mining standards, stockpiling strategies, and ways to address supply disruptions 
• Russia's central bank cut its key rate for an eighth straight meeting to 14.5%, down from a 2025 peak of 21%, and signaled further cuts are possible 
• While most central banks are weighing rate hikes due to Middle East war-driven inflation, Russia is somewhat insulated as a major energy producer that stands to benefit from higher oil prices 

China

• The U.S. boarded a sanctioned tanker in the Indian Ocean that had made repeated trips to China, escalating pressure on the shadow fleet of 500+ ships that secretly moves Iranian oil past sanctions 
• Over 140 million barrels of Iranian crude are already beyond the blockade zone, giving China roughly 2.5 months of supply buffer despite growing U.S. interdiction efforts
• Chinese AI firm MizarVision has been publishing satellite tracking of U.S. carriers and bombers in the Middle East, raising fears that China may be feeding Iran battlefield intelligence 
• With 640+ commercial satellites and no restrictions on imaging the conflict zone, China's ability to monitor U.S. military movements is a rapidly growing threat

Canada

• Canada approved Enbridge's ~$3 billion Westcoast pipeline expansion, adding 300 million cubic feet per day of capacity as part of PM Carney's push to reduce U.S. trade dependence and boost Asian energy exports

Italy

• Trump publicly broke with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni — once his closest European ally — after she refused to send forces to the Strait of Hormuz and called his attacks on Pope Leo "unacceptable," leaving her isolated on both sides of the Atlantic

Japan

• Japan will release an additional 20 days' worth of oil reserves in early May to stabilize energy prices, as the country relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its crude imports and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked

New Zealand

• New Zealand plans to spend roughly $7 billion on its military, including enhanced strike capabilities and new helicopters, aiming to reverse military attrition by recruiting 2,500 personnel in the coming years

Venezuela

• A Colombian military C-130 carrying 128 people crashed shortly after takeoff in the southern jungle, killing 66, injuring dozens and prompting criticism over long-standing deficiencies in military aircraft and airport infrastructure

Cuba

• Cuba’s nationwide blackout – driven by an obsolete, oil-dependent power grid and worsened by U.S. oil restrictions – has crippled basic services, intensified economic collapse, and fueled growing social unrest, with no near-term fix in sight

India

• Over 400,000 metric tons of Indian basmati rice are stranded at ports as the Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern shipping lanes, threatening roughly 75% of India's annual basmati rice exports

Hungary

• Hungarian authorities briefly detained seven Oschadbank employees and confiscated over $80 million in cash and gold from trucks en route to Ukraine, escalating a conflict between the two countries over oil deliveries

North Korea

• According to South Korean intelligence, Kim Jong Un’s daughter Kim Ju Ae is increasingly positioned to succeed her father as Supreme Leader of North Korea. Until recently, she was the only child of Kim Jong Un to never be shown in public

Oil Prices

• WTI: $94.40 per barrel
• +12.58% WoW; +26.00% YTD; +51.60% YoY
• Brent: $105.84 per barrel
• +17.11% WoW; +34.74% YTD; +59.04% YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.6 million bpd for the week ended April 17, down 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 544, up 1 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 465.7 million barrels, up 5.1% YoY
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 89.1% for the week, down from 89.6% in the prior week
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 5.291 million barrels per day, down 8.7% YoY

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $4.06 per gallon in the week of April 24, up 28.3% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $4.00, up 29.3% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.88, up 25.3% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $3.72, up 33.5% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $4.07, up 25.1% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $5.45, up 25.1% YoY
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 4.6 million barrels from the prior week
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 228.4 million barrels, down (0.5%) YoY
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 10.08 million bpd, up 0.0% YoY
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 9.055 million bpd, down (3.8%) YoY

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by -3.4 million in the week of April 24
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 108.1 million barrels, up 1.2% YoY
• Distillate production averaged 4.953 million bpd, up 7.1% YoY
• Demand for distillates averaged 4.032 million bpd in the week, up 3.3% YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 103 billion cubic feet last week
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 2,063 billion cubic feet, up 6.7% YoY

High-yield:

High yield bond yields stood flat 7.05% and spreads tightened 2bps to 317bps. Leveraged loan yields decreased 5bps to 8.49% and spreads decreased 9bps to 489bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 5bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 38bps. 10yr treasury yields increased 1bps to 4.33%. High-yield spreads reduced modestly and stayed near multi-month lows, supported by strong earnings, active markets, and continued inflows despite Middle East uncertainty. Leveraged loans prices increased this week amid rising rates and oil prices, muted capital market activity, and the strongest retail inflows in 14 weeks.

Week ended 04/24/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 04/24/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

Most recent defaults include: Cumulus Media ($641mn, 03/05/2026), Trinseo ($390mn, 02/17/2026), Beasley Broadcasting Group ($189mn, 02/01/2026), Nine Energy Service ($300mn, 02/01/2026), Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026), Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025), and New Fortress Energy ($3.5bn, 11/15/2025).

CLOs: 

Week ended 04/24/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM 

Diagram L: CLO Economics 

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

ZCGC Real Estate:

• US residential electricity prices reached a record 17.3 cents per kWh in 2025, up 5% YoY, with at least 11 states seeing 30%+ increases since 2020 and eastern Pennsylvania up 200%, adding about $23 monthly to average bills.
• Data centers are a major driver, projected to add $23 billion to PJM Interconnection customer bills over three years ending 2028, amid 224 GW expected growth in summer power demand over the next decade from AI, EVs, and heat pumps.
• The surge reflects households indirectly funding tech and energy transition infrastructure via higher utility rates, emerging as a significant cost-of-living pressure across the Northeast and Midwest.
• Data center demand is forcing massive grid upgrades whose costs get spread across all ratepayers.

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index