U.S. News

• U.S. Retail Sales

• • • Retail sales increased 1.4% in March, beating the forecasted 1.2%. The change represents the largest increase in over two years
    • Car sales rose 5.7% in March. Auto dealers reported the most new car sales since 2021, and businesses with rental fleets increased their purchases. Restaurant sales jumped 1.8%
    • Consumers purchased big-ticket items, such as vehicles, before the tariffs could impact prices. Thus, the better-than-expected news could indicate weaker purchases in coming months

• Housing Starts

• • • Housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,324,000. This is 11.4% below the February estimate, which is the largest drop in a year
    • High mortgage rates and home prices have decreased demand for new homes. The unfavorable environment is forcing many builders to offer incentives and discounts to close contracts, suppressing new construction
    • Tariffs are expected to further lower demand, as consumers avoid large purchases over the possibility of a recession

• Import Price Index

• • • U.S. import prices decreased 0.1% in March, below the forecasted 0.0% change. Export prices were unchanged in March after increasing 0.5% the previous month
    • Fuel import prices decreased 2.3% in March, which is the largest decline in fuel import prices since September 2024
    • Nonfuel import prices increased 0.1% in March, continuing a trend of rising prices that has persisted since May 2024

• U.S. Tariff & Trade

• • • Many of the electronics—including smartphones, laptops, and semiconductor equipment—that were exempted from President Trump’s April 2 reciprocal tariffs may face non-negotiable national security tariffs under a Section 232 investigation in the coming weeks
    • Originally proposed fees of up to $1.5 million on Chinese-made ships arriving at U.S. ports were eased to a per-container or per-ton fee and capped at six times per year per vessel. While less severe, the new fees, set to take effect within 180 days, still give a significant advantage to non-Chinese built vessels arriving at US Ports
    • Ocean carriers have canceled 80 sailings from China, removing an estimated 680,000 to 800,000 TEUs (Twenty-Foot-Equivalent Units) from the market in the coming weeks. In 2024, the U.S. imported between 700,000 and 1 million TEUs from China each month
    • Multiple importers and the state of California have filed lawsuits challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs, arguing that the law does not grant such broad authority and requesting a preliminary injunction on the tariffs while the litigation proceeds

  Target Country	Tariffs	Goods Targeted	Effective Date	Tariff %
  China	Sec 301 China Origin Tariffs	Most goods	7/16/2018	Most CN goods have total tariffs ranging from 145% to 170%, with select goods facing tariffs as high as 245%
  	4 Year Review of Sec 301	Select goods such as electric vehicles, batteries, syringes, medical gloves, and solar cells	9/27/2024
  	IEEPA China #1	All goods of Chinese origin	2/1/2025
  	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods of Chinese origin, except smartphones, computers, and other electronics	4/9/2025
  Canada	IEEPA Canada	All goods, except USMCA qualifying goods	3/4/2025	25%, except 10% on energy products
  Mexico	IEEPA Mexico	All goods, except USMCA qualifying goods	3/4/2025	25%
  All	Sec 232 Steel / Aluminum & Derivatives	Steel, aluminum, and certain derivatives of steel and aluminum	3/12/2025	25%
  All	Automotive	Passenger vehicles, light trucks, engines and engine parts, transmission and powertrain parts, and electrical components	4/2/2025	25%
  All	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and goods from countries that have a specific IEEPA tariffs	4/5/2025	10%

  
  

  Threatened US Tariffs
  Target Country	Goods Targeted	Effective Date	Tariff %
  All Countries	Lumber, Copper, Food Imports	Unknown	Unspecified
  All Countries	Pharmaceuticals	Unknown	25% (assumed)
  All Countries	Semiconductors / Chips	Unknown	25% (assumed)
  Nations that import Venezuelan oil	All Goods	Unknown	25%

• Jobless Claims

• • • Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 215,000 in the week ended April 11, down 9,000 from the prior week.
    • The four-week moving average was 220,750, down 2500 from the prior week.
    • Continuing claims – those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week – increased by 41,000 to 1.885 million in the week ended April 4. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

• Fed’s Balance Sheet

• • • The Federal Reserves assets totaled $6.727 trillion in the week ended April 18, down $0.3 billion from the prior week.
    • Treasury holdings totaled $4.219 trillion, down $0.3 billion from the prior week.
    • Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.19 trillion in the week, down $0.0 billion from the prior week.

• Total Public Debt

• • • Total public debt outstanding was $36.22 trillion as of April 18, an increase of 4.7% from the previous year.
    • Debt held by the public was $28.91 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.30 trillion.

• GDP

• • • The latest annualized U.S GDP stands at $29.72 trillion as of December 31, an increase of 5.04% from the previous year
    • The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 121.85% as of December 31, an increase of 1.69% from the previous year

• Inflation Factors

• CPI:

• • • • The consumer-price index rose 2.4% in March year over year.
      • On a monthly basis, the CPI decreased -0.1% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in February.
      • The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.1% in March, after rising 0.2% in February.
      • Core CPI increased 2.8% for the 12 months ending March.

• Food & Beverages:

• • • • The food at home index increased 2.4% in March from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.5% in February month over month.
      • The food away from home index increased 3.8% in March from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.4% in March month over month.

• Commodities:

• • • • The energy commodities index decreased (6.1%) in March after decreasing
      • The energy commodities index fell (9.5%) over the last 12 months.
      • The energy services index rose 0.9% in February after increasing 0.8% in February.
      • The energy services index rose 4.2% over the last 12 months.
      • The gasoline index fell (9.8%) over the last 12 months.
      • The fuel oil index fell (7.6%) over the last 12 months.
      • The index for electricity rose 2.8% over the last 12 months.
      • The index for natural gas rose 9.4% over the last 12 months.

• Supply Chain:

• • • • Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $2,192.02 per 40ft
      • Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (19.4%) over the last 12 months.

• Housing Market:

• • • • The shelter index increased 0.2% in March after increasing 0.3% in February.
      • The rent index increased 0.2% in March after increasing 0.2% in February.
      • The index for lodging away from home increased 0.8% in March after increasing 2.9% in February.

• Federal Funds Rate

• • • The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 4.33%, flat 0.00% year to date.

World News

• Middle East

• • • Yemini militias are planning a ground offensive against the Houthis, after a U.S. bombing campaign degraded the Houthi’s military capabilities. The United Arab Emirates, which supports these Yemini militias, brought the plan to American officials in recent weeks
    • State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce accused Beijing of supporting the Houthi rebels in their attacks against U.S. interests. Most recently, a Chinese company was found providing satellite imagery to aid the Houthis in targeting their rocket attacks
    • Hamas has been unable to fully pay its fighters and political staff over the past couple months, signaling a weakened and increasingly dysfunctional organization as it contends with a more aggressive Israeli military strategy
    • The Trump administration issued new demands of Syria’s new government, including cracking down on extremists and expelling Palestinian militants in return for easing of sanctions

• Europe

• • • Russia launched the deadliest missile strike of the year against Ukraine, killing 34 and injuring over 100 people. Two ballistic missiles hit a university and residential buildings, according to Ukrainian officials. Russian officials stated that it targeted a meeting of Ukrainian military commanders
    • Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. presented a framework for peace in Ukraine, but the United States would shift to other diplomatic priorities if no progress is made in the coming weeks
    • Germany’s ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment dove to -14.0 in April, well below the forecasted 10.0 and the largest drop since 2022. The survey demonstrates that recent U.S. tariffs against Germany have dramatically shifted consumers’ outlooks
    • President Trump expressed optimism about reaching a trade deal with the European Union, where both sides would drop tariff rates against the other. The statement came after a cordial meeting between Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and President Trump

• China

• • • China’s exports jumped 12.4% in March compared to prior year, stronger than the forecasted 4.4% increase. The better-than-expected results are likely front-loaded orders before tariffs take effect
    • According to U.S. officials, the Trump administration plans to offer tariff relief to U.S. trading partners in exchange for limiting their dealings with China. Proposed restrictions include disallowing China to ship goods through their countries, preventing Chinese firms from locating to their territories, and refusing cheap Chinese industrial goods
    • Xi Jinping is taking his first trip out of China since President Trump took office, visiting Europe, Latin America, and Asia. The voyage is seen as an effort to shore up support while the U.S. causes tension with its own trading partners
    • Chinese Premier Li Qiang convened a meeting with his cabinet members on Thursday to prescribe policies that will stave off the economic impact of U.S. tariffs. Officials vowed to support property markets while incentivizing consumption in tourism, elderly care, and childcare

• El Salvador

• • • El Salvador plans to double the size of the prison that is holding U.S. deportees. The prison is already the largest in the world and currently holds approximately 15,000 people. Doubling its size would give it a capacity of 80,000 inmates

• Ecuador

• • • Ecuadoreans re-elected President Daniel Noboa, who campaigned on a crackdown on violent transnational gangs smuggling cocaine into the U.S. Despite his efforts, 2025 has been Ecuador’s most violent year to-date, with over 1,500 homicides in January and February

• Sudan

• • • The country’s largest displacement camp, located in the Darfur region, was attacked by the Rapid Support Forces. Camp administrators said at least 500 people were killed, including the entire 10-person staff

• Australia

• • • At Labor’s 2025 campaign launch, PM Anthony Albanese pledged $10B for 100,000 new homes for first-home buyers, announced a $1,000 automatic tax deduction for all workers, emphasized WA’s importance, and took aim at Peter Dutton’s Trump-style politics—while rallying support around fairness, housing, and equality

• Hungary

• • • Hungary announced it would withdraw from the International Criminal Court in response to its arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, marking a significant challenge to the ICC’s authority in Europe

• Canada

• • • Former central banker Mark Carney decisively won Canada’s Liberal Party leadership race and met with outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to prepare a swift power transition, aiming to confront a damaging trade war with President Trump’s United States

• Germany

• • • Germany’s jobless rate rose from 6.2% in February to 6.3% in March. Major companies announced increasing layoffs, which threatens to further increase unemployment

Commodities

• Oil Prices

• • • WTI: $64.68 per barrel
      • +5.17% WoW; (9.82%) YTD; (21.78%) YoY
    • Brent: $67.96 per barrel
      • +4.94% WoW; (8.95%) YTD; (22.14%) YoY

• US Production

• • • U.S. oil production amounted to 13.5 million bpd for the week ended April 11, up 0.1 million
      bpd from the prior week.

• Rig Count

• • • The total number of oil rigs amounted to 585, up 2 from last week.

• Inventories

• • • Crude Oil

      • Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 442.9 million barrels, down (3.7%) YoY.
      • Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 86.3% for the week, down from 86.7%
        in the prior week.
      • U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.189 million barrels per day, down (7.1%) YoY.

    • Gasoline

      • Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $3.16 per gallon in the week of
        April 18, down (14.2%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $3.13, down (12.0%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.09, down (12.8%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $2.85, down (12.9%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $3.22, down (9.2%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $4.40, down (11.6%)
      • Motor gasoline inventories were down by 2.0 million barrels from the prior week.
      • Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 234.0 million barrels, up 2.9% YoY.
      • Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.41 million bpd, down (0.1%) YoY.
      • Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.462 million bpd, down (2.3%) YoY.

    • Distillates

      • Distillate inventories decreased by -1.9 million in the week of April 18.
      • Total distillate inventories amounted to 109.2 million barrels, down (5.0%) YoY.
      • Distillate production averaged 4.688 million bpd, up 1.9% YoY.
      • Demand for distillates averaged 3.858 million bpd in the week, up 5.2% YoY.

• Natural Gas

• • • Natural gas inventories increased by 16 billion cubic feet last week.
    • Total natural gas inventories now amount to 1,846 billion cubic feet, down (20.9%) YoY.

Credit News

High yield bond yields decreased 42bps to 8.15% and spreads decreased 32bps to 425bps. Leveraged loan yields decreased 21bps to 8.85% and spreads decreased 16bps to 537bps. WTD Leveraged loan returns were positive 55bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 152bps. 10yr treasury yields decreased 16bps to 4.32%. Yields and spreads fell following comments from Fed Chair, emphasized that price stability is essential for sustaining long periods of robust labor markets. By reaffirming the Fed’s focus on inflation, he pushed back against market expectations for a swift monetary policy response to early signs of economic slowdown. No deals priced this week with the last transaction taking place on April 2nd. For context, this is the longest stretch of inactivity since the pandemic.

High-yield:

Week ended 4/18/2025

• Yields & Spreads¹
  
• Pricing & Returns¹
  
• Fund Flows²
  
• New Issue²
  
• Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²
  
• Total HY Defaults
  

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
² Source: JP Morgan

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 4/18/2025

• Yields & Spreads¹
  
• Leveraged Loan Index¹
  
• Fund Flows²
  
• New Issue²
  
• Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹
  
• Total Loan Defaults
  

Default activity:

• Most recent defaults include: Astra Acquisition ($1.0bn, 3/10/2025), Mitel Networks ($900mn, 3/9/2025), Rugs USA ($486mn, 3/3/2025), Aimbridge Hospitality ($1.1bn, 1/31/2025), Exela Intermediate LLC ($1.2bn, 1/15/2025), and City Brewing ($886mn, 1/2/2025).

CLOs:

Week ended 4/18/2025

• New U.S. CLO Issuance²
  
• New U.S. CLO Issuance²
  

Note:High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings
  

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Source: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns

Diagram J: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

Diagram K: CLO Economics

Diagram L: Developed Country GovBond Yields (%)

Diagram M: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram N: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)x

Diagram O: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts

Diagram Q: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram R: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram S: SOFR CURVE

Diagram T: CMBS Spreads

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index