Consumer Credit

• U.S. consumer credit rose by $24.05 billion in December 2025, significantly above the $8.0 billion forecasted by economists polled by the Wall Street Journal
• Revolving credit increased by $13.85 billion in December, following a $1.69 billion decrease in November
• Nonrevolving credit—including auto and student loans—rose $10.20 billion in December, following a $6.38 billion increase in November

ADP Jobs Report

• According to ADP, businesses created 22,000 new jobs in January, substantially below the 45,000 estimated by Wall Street forecasters
• The data supports the Federal Reserve’s view of a weakening labor market, which was a major reason it left the interest rate unchanged last week
• The better regarded BLS jobs report was delayed until February 13, 2026, due to the government shutdown

Auto Sales

• Sales of cars and trucks increased at an annual rate of 14.9 million units in January, down 7% from 16.1 million in December
• The January data represents the lowest auto sales levels in 3 years. Analysts suspect sales were depressed by severe weather conditions
• Headwinds for the industry, such as the loss of the EV tax break and tariff exposure, put 2026 auto sales in doubt

U.S. Tariff & Trade

• The United States and India released an interim trade deal with India agreeing to cease Russian oil purchases, cut or eliminate duties on U.S. industrial and agricultural goods and the U.S. applying an 18% reciprocal tariff beginning February 7^th on Indian products; India also committed to purchasing $500 billion in U.S. goods over five years
• The EU extended for six months its suspension of retaliatory tariffs (covering about $109.8 billion in U.S. goods) originally linked to earlier trade tensions, maintaining the de-escalation through August 2026
• President Trump has threatened to raise the tariff on South Korea back toward 25% if South Korea’s legislature does not finalize legislation supporting large-scale Korean investment in the United States; the uncertainty is accelerating U.S. investment plans by automakers, including Hyundai Motor Group, which reaffirmed its $26B commitment through 2030 
• Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will begin routing through the Suez Canal in mid-February, marking their first transit of the Red Sea in over two years; the move signals a cautious industry step toward restoring Suez routings under naval escort

Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., increased to 231,000 in the week ended January 30, up 22,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 212,250 up 6,000 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims - those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week - increased at 1.844 million in the week ended January 23. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.606 trillion in the week ended February 6, up $18.3 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.275 trillion, up $15.7 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.02 trillion in the week, down $14.4 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.59 trillion as of February 6, an increase of 6.5% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $30.97 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.60 trillion

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $31.10 trillion as of September 30, 2025, an increase of 2.01% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 5.38% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 121.03% as of September 30, an increase of 0.86% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer price index rose 2.7% in December year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in November.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in December, after rising 0.2% in November.
• Core CPI increased 2.6% for the 12 months ending December.

Food & Beverages

• The food at home index increased 2.4% in December from the same month a year earlier and increased 0.7% in December month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 4.1% in December from the same month a year earlier and increased 0.7% in December month over month.

Commodities

• The energy commodities index decreased (0.4%) in December after increasing 0.7% in November.
• The energy commodities index fell (3.0%) over the last 12 months.
• The energy services index rose 1.1% in December after increasing 0.1% in November.
• The energy services index rose 7.7% over the last 12 months.
• The gasoline index fell (3.4%) over the last 12 months.
• The fuel oil index rose 7.4% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 6.7% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 10.8% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index decreased to $1,958.63 per 40ft container for the week of February 6.
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (40.1%) over the last 12 months.

Housing Market

• The shelter index increased 0.4% in December after increasing 0.2% in November.
• The rent index increased 0.4% in December after increasing 0.2% in November.
• The index for lodging away from home increased 1.2% in December after decreasing (8.2%) in November.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.64%, flat 0.00% year to date

Middle East

• A second wave of popular unrest is rising in Iran, after a first wave of protests resulted in 7,000 people killed and over 50,000 arrested
• Students, mourning families, and medical workers are openly calling for the end of the regime. In response, Iranian authorities have made some concessions, such as releasing a prominent protestor on bail and issuing motorcycle licenses to women
• During talks between Iran and the U.S., Iran refused to end nuclear fuel enrichment or move it offshore. The U.S. seeks to end Iran’s uranium enrichment and ballistic missile program
• While the two countries agreed to diplomatic discussions, Iran threatened to fire missiles on a broad set of targets in the Middle East if President Trump orders an attack on Iran

Europe

• Russia launched its largest aerial assault of the year against Ukraine. The attack targeted thermal power plants, leaving nearly 2,000 buildings without heat
• President Trump said that he asked President Vladimir Putin to hold off on strikes for one week due to frigid temperatures
• German manufacturing orders rose 7.8% in December, following a 5.7% increase in November. December 2025 data represents the strongest monthly increase in two years
• The increase in orders primarily stems from fabricated metals and machinery, suggesting a possible economic recovery

China

• Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te pledged to deepen trade and security ties with the United States. His speech focused on artificial intelligence, drones, and supply chains that exclude China
• Tensions recently cooled between Taiwan and the U.S. after President Trump pledged to decrease tariffs in exchange for Taiwanese investment in the U.S.
• The Trump administration accused China of conducing low-yield nuclear tests, in violation of a nuclear test ban
• The allegation is the latest effort to bring China to negotiate a new nuclear weapons agreement. The New Start agreement, which previously limited nuclear arms testing, recently expired

Japan

• Prime Minster Sanae Takaichi won a landslide victory in parliamentary elections, securing a two-thirds majority in the lower house

Cuba

• Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel said his government is willing to engage with the Trump administration. The announcement comes during the country’s worst crisis since the fall of the Soviet Union

Egypt

• The Rafah border between Egypt and Gaza reopened, allowing limited two-way traffic. Israel proposed allowing 150 Palestinians to leave and 50 to enter the checkpoint daily

Russia

• Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev, deputy head of Russia’s GRU intelligence agency, was shot multiple times while in Moscow

Canada

• President Donald Trump threatened to ground Canadian-made aircrafts and impose tariffs on Canadian imports after Canada delayed certification of U.S.-made Gulfstream jets, escalating trade tensions between Washington and Ottawa

Venezuela

• Venezuela’s interim government introduced a bill to loosen state control over its oil industry, aiming to attract U.S. energy companies. The proposed bill maintains a 30% royalty, with a possible reduction to 15% in some joint ventures, and allows for independent arbitration

Taiwan

• Taiwan pledged $250 billion to stand up semiconductor factories in the United States. In exchange, the U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on Taiwanese goods from 20% to 15%

Israel

• Israel formally recognized Somaliland to gain intelligence cooperation and secure strategic Red Sea shipping lanes near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, marking a bold diplomatic move that expands its influence into the Horn of Africa despite international condemnation

Oil Prices

• WTI: $63.55 per barrel
• (2.55%) WoW; (11.39%) YTD; (10.53%) YoY
• Brent: $68.05 per barrel
• (3.73%) WoW; (8.83%) YTD; (8.40%) YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.2 million bpd for the week ended January 30, down 0.5 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 551, up 5 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 420.3 million barrels, down (1.8%) YoY
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 90.9% for the week, down from 90.9% in the prior week
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 5.642 million barrels per day, down (1.7%) YoY

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $2.90 per gallon in the week of February 6, down (7.6%) YoY
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $2.94, down (6.2%) YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $2.73, down (8.9%) YoY
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $2.54, down (9.4%) YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $2.70, down (12.6%) YoY
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $3.96, down (2.4%) YoY
• Motor gasoline inventories were up by 0.7 million barrels from the prior week
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 257.9 million barrels, up 4.0% YoY
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.01 million bpd, down (3.6%) YoY
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.153 million bpd, up (4.9%) YoY

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by 0.0 million in the week of February 6
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 127.4 million barrels, up 7.4% YoY
• Distillate production averaged 4.814 million bpd, up 6.0% YoY
• Demand for distillates averaged 4.310 million bpd in the week, up 17.0% YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories decreased by 0 billion cubic feet last week
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 2,463 billion cubic feet, up 7.2% YoY

High-yield:

High yield bond yields increased 9bps to 6.80% and spreads widened 17bps to 317bps. Leveraged loan yields increased 9bps to 8.21% while spreads increased 18bps to 491bps. WTD high yield bond returns were negative 11bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were negative 42bps. 10yr treasury yields decreased 2bps to 4.21%. High yield bond spreads widened as concerns over AI-driven disruption triggered a broader risk-off sentiment across markets. Leveraged loan prices fell as continued weakness in the software subsector weighed on the broader market.

Week ended 02/06/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 02/06/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

• Most recent defaults include: Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026), Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025), New Fortress Energy ($3.5bn, 11/15/2025), Packers Sanitation Services ($1.2bn, 11/5/2025), Office Properties Trust ($1.7bn, 10/31/25), GPS Hospitality ($400mn, 10/30/25), Jordan Health Services ($1.0bn, 10/15/25), and Astra Acquisition ($1bn, 9/30/25).

CLOs: 

Week ended 02/06/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM 

Diagram L: CLO Economics 

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index