Consumer Confidence

• Consumer confidence rose to 92.8 in April, boosted by a stock rally after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and improved labor market views
• High gas prices above $4 a gallon remain a concern, with fewer consumers planning vacations or appliance purchases 
• Economists doubt the improvement lasts, warning tariffs, the Middle East conflict, and fading tax refunds will weigh on the economy 

PCE Index

• Core PCE inflation hit 3.2% in March — its highest since November 2023 — reflecting broad underlying price pressures
• Headline PCE rose to 3.5% annually, driven largely by an 11.6% surge in energy goods and services stemming from the Iran war 
• GDP grew 2% in Q1, better than Q4's 0.5% but below the 2.2% estimate, as consumer spending was squeezed by high gas prices despite an AI spending boost

Manufacturing PMI

• Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.7% for a fourth straight month of expansion, though employment continued contracting for the 31st consecutive month
• Input prices surged to a 4-year high of 84.6%, fueled by rising steel, aluminum, and petroleum costs 
• Export orders slipped deeper into contraction and supplier deliveries slowed for a fifth straight month, pointing to growing trade and supply chain pressure

Jobless Claims 

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 189,000 in the week ended April 24, down 26,000 from the prior week
• The four-week moving average was 207,500, down 3500 from the prior week
• Continuing claims – those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week – decreased at 1.785 million in the week ended April 17. This figure is reported with a one-week lag

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.700 trillion in the week ended May 1, down $7.5 billion from the prior week
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.422 trillion, up $9.1 billion from the prior week
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $1.99 trillion in the week, down $8.6 billion from the prior week

Total Public Debt 

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.97 trillion as of May 1, an increase of 7.6% from the previous year
• Debt held by the public was $31.27 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.63 trillion

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $31.44 trillion as of December 31, 2025, an increase of 1.11% from the previous quarter, & an increase of 5.42% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 122.49% as of December 31, an increase of 1.05% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.3% in March year over year
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.9% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.3% in February
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in March, after rising 0.2% in February
• Core CPI increased 2.6% for the 12 months ending March

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.0% in March from the same month a year earlier, and decreased -0.2% in March month over month
• The food away from home index increased 3.8% in March from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.2% in March month over month

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 21.3% in March after increasing 1.1% in February
• The energy commodities index rose 19.4% over the last 12 months
• The energy services index fell (0.2%) in March after decreasing (0.1%) in February
• The energy services index rose 5.0% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index rose 18.9% over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index rose 44.2% over the last 12 months
• The index for electricity rose 4.6% over the last 12 months
• The index for natural gas rose 6.4% over the last 12 months

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $2,308.78 per 40 ft container for the week of April 10
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has increased by 1.9% over the last 12 months

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.3% in March after increasing 0.2% in February
• The rent index increased 0.3% in March after increasing 0.2% in February
• The index for lodging away from home increased 4.6% in March after increasing 3.8% in February

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.64%, flat 0.00% year to date

Middle East

• Iran submitted a softened peace proposal offering to discuss Strait of Hormuz conditions alongside U.S. ceasefire guarantees, dropping its prior demand that the blockade end before talks begin 
• Trump said he remains unsatisfied with Iran's position, as the two sides stay far apart on the core issues of nuclear enrichment and reopening the strait, which has kept oil above $100 a barrel
• The U.S. blockade has neutralized Iran's shadow oil network, with no cargo confirmed reaching China and only 40% of trade reroutable
• Iran's leadership is split between moderates seeking a deal and hard-liners pushing for military escalation as the economy rapidly deteriorates

Europe

• Eurozone GDP grew just 0.1% in Q1, below expectations, as surging energy prices from the Middle East conflict weighed on consumer spending and industry 
• The ECB held rates at 2.0% but warned of a more adverse outlook, with inflation hitting 3.0% in April and Brent crude climbing above $120 a barrel 
• Trump threatened to pull some of the ~35,000 U.S. troops from Germany after Chancellor Merz criticized America's Iran war strategy, catching senior U.S. military officers off guard
• Analysts warn a withdrawal would undermine U.S. power projection globally, as German bases like Ramstein serve as critical logistics and command hubs for operations across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa 

China

• China blocked Meta's $2.5 billion acquisition of AI startup Manus on national-security grounds, even after Manus had relocated to Singapore and the deal had already closed 
• The ruling signals that any tech company with Chinese origins remains subject to Beijing's veto, deepening uncertainty for foreign firms and accelerating the bifurcation of U.S.-China business ties
• China's manufacturing PMI held at 50.3 in April, beating expectations, as export strength offset signs of weakening domestic demand from the Iran war's disruptions 
• Services and construction activity slipped back into contraction in April, while Beijing signaled no major stimulus is coming despite growing stress on the domestic economy

Australia

• Australia is permanently diversifying its oil imports beyond Middle East suppliers and accelerating its renewable energy transition, even as it secures emergency fuel reserves to buffer against the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption

Canada

• Canada approved Enbridge's ~$3 billion Westcoast pipeline expansion, adding 300 million cubic feet per day of capacity as part of PM Carney's push to reduce U.S. trade dependence and boost Asian energy exports

Italy

• Trump publicly broke with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni — once his closest European ally — after she refused to send forces to the Strait of Hormuz and called his attacks on Pope Leo "unacceptable," leaving her isolated on both sides of the Atlantic

Japan

• Japan will release an additional 20 days' worth of oil reserves in early May to stabilize energy prices, as the country relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its crude imports and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked

New Zealand

• New Zealand plans to spend roughly $7 billion on its military, including enhanced strike capabilities and new helicopters, aiming to reverse military attrition by recruiting 2,500 personnel in the coming years

Venezuela

• A Colombian military C-130 carrying 128 people crashed shortly after takeoff in the southern jungle, killing 66, injuring dozens and prompting criticism over long-standing deficiencies in military aircraft and airport infrastructure

Cuba

• Cuba’s nationwide blackout – driven by an obsolete, oil-dependent power grid and worsened by U.S. oil restrictions – has crippled basic services, intensified economic collapse, and fueled growing social unrest, with no near-term fix in sight

India

• Over 400,000 metric tons of Indian basmati rice are stranded at ports as the Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern shipping lanes, threatening roughly 75% of India's annual basmati rice exports

Hungary

• Hungarian authorities briefly detained seven Oschadbank employees and confiscated over $80 million in cash and gold from trucks en route to Ukraine, escalating a conflict between the two countries over oil deliveries

Oil Prices

• WTI: $102.36 per barrel
• +8.43% WoW; +36.63% YTD; +75.85% YoY
• Brent: $108.85 per barrel
• +3.34% WoW; +38.57% YTD; +75.20% YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.6 million bpd for the week ended April 24, up 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 547, up 3 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 459.5 million barrels, up 4.3% YoY
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 89.6% for the week, up from 89.1% in the prior week
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.078 million barrels per day, down 4.6% YoY

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $4.39 per gallon in the week of May 1, up 38.1% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $4.07, up 31.3% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.97, up 29.1% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $3.77, up 35.6% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $4.15, up 27.2% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $5.54, up 28.1% YoY
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 6.1 million barrels from the prior week
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 222.3 million barrels, down (1.4%) YoY
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.84 million bpd, up 4.0% YoY
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 9.104 million bpd, up 0.1% YoY

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by -4.5 million in the week of May 1
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 103.6 million barrels, down (3.9%) YoY
• Distillate production averaged 4.940 million bpd, up 7.2% YoY
• Demand for distillates averaged 4.113 million bpd in the week, up 15.9% YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 79 billion cubic feet last week
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 2,142 billion cubic feet, up 4.9% YoY

High-yield:

High yield bond yields increased 3 bps to 7.08% and spreads tightened 3bps to 314bps. Leveraged loan yields increased 7bps to 8.56% while spreads remained flat at 488bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 1bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 13bps. 10yr treasury yields increased 5bps to 4.37%. High-yield and leveraged loan spreads held steady for a second straight week, supported by strong earnings and resilient economic data, alongside a more hawkish Fed outlook.

Week ended 05/01/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 05/01/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

• Most recent defaults include: Cumulus Media ($641mn, 03/05/2026), Trinseo ($390mn, 02/17/2026), Beasley Broadcasting Group ($189mn, 02/01/2026), Nine Energy Service ($300mn, 02/01/2026), Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026), Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025), and New Fortress Energy ($3.5bn, 11/15/2025).

CLOs: 

Week ended 05/01/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM 

Diagram L: CLO Economics 

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

ZCGC Real Estate:

• $715B combined 2026 CapEx across Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft (up +98% YoY, ~3x 2024, 5x 2023)
• Each hyperscaler’s 2026 spend ≈ prior two years combined, with Amazon at ~$200B, Google and Microsoft at ~$190B each, Meta at $125–145B
•  A structural shift from asset-light to capital-heavy as Big Tech races for AI dominance and locks in compute, chips, and data center capacity
•  Near-term tailwind: cloud revenues accelerating and S&P 500 EPS estimates rising, helped by the accounting mismatch,  revenue hits immediately while CapEx is capitalized over years
• The open questions: ROI timing, power and grid constraints, and whether AI monetization can match the historic scale of investment

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index