US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

• Headline CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month, pulling the annual rate down to 3.4% from 3.5%, with core CPI up 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY — both in line with consensus and easing further from the energy-driven spike earlier this year.
• Shelter costs, though still elevated, accounted for roughly two-thirds of the headline increase despite rising just 0.1%, while airline fares jumped 2.2% and medical care rose 0.4%, showing inflation pressure has broadened beyond energy even as the overall trend cools.
• Markets responded by cutting the odds of a September rate hike to 42% from higher pre-release levels, with Fed officials publicly split — Cleveland's Hammack pushing for action while most economists see the Fed staying on hold pending more data before the September meeting.

US Producer Price Index (PPI)

• Producer prices were flat month-over-month, missing the 0.2% consensus rebound after June's downwardly revised 0.1% decline, with the annual rate easing sharply to 4.7% from 5.5% — well below the 4.9% forecast.
• Energy prices fell 3.1% and gasoline dropped 5.7%, dragging goods prices down 0.7%, while services rose a modest 0.2% — a divergence that suggests pipeline inflation pressure is easing rather than building.
• Core PPI (ex-food and energy) rose just 0.2%, missing the 0.3% consensus, with the annual core rate cooling to 4.2% from 4.7% — a data point likely to reinforce, rather than complicate, the disinflationary narrative set by Wednesday's CPI print.

Retail Sales

• Retail and food services sales fell 0.6% month-over-month to $763.6 billion — the sharpest monthly decline in more than a year and a significant miss against expectations for a modest 0.4% gain — with core sales (ex-autos and gas) down 0.4%, indicating the softness was broad-based rather than isolated.
• The pullback was led by a 2.2% drop in nonstore (online) retailers and a 1.8% decline in motor vehicle and parts dealers, partly reflecting the rescheduling of Amazon's Prime Day and normalization after strong spring spending supported by tax refunds.
• Despite the monthly contraction, sales remained up 5.0% year-over-year and the three-month trailing average held at a still-solid 6.3% — suggesting a loss of momentum rather than a definitive break in consumer demand, though the report adds another data point supporting a softer growth trajectory following this month's weak jobs numbers.

Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., increased to 209,000 in the week ended August 7, up 9,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 199,000, flat from the prior week.
• Continuing claims — those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week — decreased at 1.777 million in the week ended July 31. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed's Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.760 trillion in the week ended August 14, up $11.4 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.533 trillion, up $8.6 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $1.93 trillion in the week, down $8.0 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $39.93 trillion as of August 14, an increase of 7.7% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $32.20 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.73 trillion.

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $32.48 trillion as of June 30, 2026, an increase of 1.91% from the previous quarter, & an increase of 6.53% from the previous year.
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 121.52% as of June 30, an increase of 2.73% from the previous year.

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.4% in July year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.1% in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, after decreasing (0.4%) in June.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in July, after falling 0.0% in June.
• Core CPI increased 2.5% for the 12 months ending July.

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.6% in July from the same month a year earlier, and decreased (0.1%) in July month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 3.4% in July from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in July month over month.

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index decreased (2.9%) in July after decreasing (9.5%) in June.
• The energy commodities index rose 24.7% over the last 12 months.
• The energy services index rose 0.1% in July after increasing 1.5% in June.
• The energy services index rose 4.3% over the last 12 months.
• The gasoline index rose 24.6% over the last 12 months.
• The fuel oil index rose 39.1% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 4.2% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 4.3% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain:

• Drewry's composite World Container Index increased to $4,338.60 per 40ft container for the week of August 14.
• Drewry's composite World Container Index has increased by 84.6% over the last 12 months.

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.1% in July after increasing 0.1% in June.
• The rent index increased 0.1% in July after increasing 0.1% in June.
• The index for lodging away from home decreased (3.4%) in July after decreasing (2.5%) in June.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.63%, down (0.01%) year to date.

Money Market Funds

• Money market fund assets stood at $7.93 trillion as of August 12, 2026, up 0.2% from the previous week, & up 10.3% from the previous year.

Middle East

• Iran has effectively shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz using only sporadic drone and missile strikes, with just 14 vessels crossing on Tuesday versus the pre-war norm of 130+ daily, even as Trump claims the U.S. has "total control" of the waterway.
• War-risk insurance for a Hormuz transit has surged to as much as 10% of a ship's value from roughly 0.25% pre-war — implying $3-10 million in added cost per large tanker — while the IEA confirmed the strait is effectively closed again after June's reopening deal collapsed in July.
• A newly disclosed Pentagon assessment sent to Congress found that three U.S. strikes on Yemen in April 2025 killed 153 civilians and wounded 243 more, marking the administration's first formal acknowledgment of the campaign's civilian toll, with Centcom now reviewing 15 additional incidents for possible casualties.
• The disclosure notably excludes Trump's ongoing operations against Iran, including a school strike near Minab that U.S. investigators believe killed over 100 children — a separate investigation the administration has suggested it may never publicly conclude.

Europe

• Germany's top military officer, Gen. Carsten Breuer, said Russia is systematically using drones to probe NATO air defenses across the alliance's eastern flank, with hybrid attacks occurring "every day" as Moscow prepares its economy and military for a potentially wider conflict with the West even while still fighting in Ukraine.
• The warning follows German police disarming an explosive-laden drone near a Ukrainian cargo plane at an eastern German airport, and comes as Berlin unveils its first postwar military strategy — including a $35 billion satellite spending pledge and a new Tomahawk missile production deal with the U.S. — positioning Germany to take a leadership role in European defense.
• Escalating Russian and Ukrainian attacks on Black Sea shipping are threatening to shut down one of the world's most critical grain and energy corridors, with Russian strikes hitting 57 vessels since June 20 — killing at least 21 people — while Ukraine has struck 218 ships tied to Russia's shadow fleet and crimped operations at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which carries nearly 2% of global oil.
• The mutual targeting has already forced shipping giant Maersk to halt operations at Ukraine's Chornomorsk port and pushed Chicago wheat futures above $7 a bushel for the first time since 2023, with Ukraine's foreign minister warning of a Hormuz-style choke point effect that could drive food price spikes across Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

China

• China's consumer prices rose just 0.5% year-over-year in July, decelerating sharply from June's 1.0% and missing the 0.8% consensus, while producer prices grew 3.5% — also below the 3.9% forecast — as easing gasoline costs and unfavorable weather weighed on both readings.
• The dual miss reinforces signs of weak domestic demand already visible in PMI data, with China's Q2 growth cooling to its weakest pace in over three years despite a boost from AI-driven exports, prompting Beijing to signal stronger fiscal stimulus that economists say will take months to meaningfully transmit through the economy.
• Chinese authorities are cracking down on an underground market where Communist Party insiders leak advance tips about Xi Jinping's corruption purges via cryptic social-media posts, enabling suspects to destroy evidence and flee while allowing outside investors to make well-timed trades on affected stocks.
• The leaks persist despite Xi's crackdown having disciplined more than seven million officials since 2012 and penalizing over 7,800 discipline inspectors for misconduct in 2023 alone, underscoring both the depth of insider graft within the party's enforcement apparatus and the limits of Beijing's ability to plug information leaks without granting the transparency that would undermine authoritarian control.

Americas

• Canadian factory sales rose 0.1% in June — a fifth consecutive monthly gain and a surprise beat against expectations for a 0.1% decline — pushing Q2 manufacturing sales to a record C$235 billion and adding upside risk to what was already an above-3% growth estimate, well ahead of the Bank of Canada's original 2.5% projection.
• The strength came despite a 14.1% drop in petroleum and coal-product shipments tied to the collapsed U.S.-Iran Hormuz shipping deal, with chemicals and transportation equipment leading gains as manufacturers continue adjusting to Trump-era tariff exposure ahead of ongoing U.S.-Canada trade talks.
• A 7.4-magnitude earthquake in western Colombia killed nearly 200 people, injured 2,600, and destroyed 243 buildings just 63 hours into newly inaugurated President Abelardo de la Espriella's term, with rescue crews still working to extricate an estimated 260 people trapped under rubble across Cali, Pereira, and Manizales.
• The disaster hands de la Espriella an immediate fiscal crisis, with Colombia's debt already projected to reach 66% of GDP this year — analysts say he may invoke Article 215 emergency powers to fund reconstruction without congressional approval, a move that risks deepening the country's long-term debt trajectory.

Africa

• The Bundibugyo Ebola strain has infected 3,973 people and killed 1,801 in just 10 weeks — already outpacing the record 2014-2016 West Africa outbreak's early trajectory — with its unusually slow replication rate allowing infected individuals to travel widely before symptoms emerge, as evidenced by a Congolese traveler who completed an eight-day Dubai business trip before testing positive, while active conflict in eastern DRC, community mistrust, and the absence of an approved vaccine continue to hamper containment efforts

Japan

• The U.S. and Japan conducted a historic joint currency intervention on Friday to support the yen near 40-year lows, driven by slow Bank of Japan rate hikes and Iran war-fueled energy import costs on Japan's side and concern over Treasury market stability on the U.S. side, since Tokyo — the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasurys — has committed to borrowing from the Fed rather than selling its bondholdings to fund any further defense of the currency

Venezuela

• U.S.-backed talks between Venezuela's interim government and parts of the opposition began on August 1, aiming to establish a path toward democratic elections, but exclude prominent opposition leader María Corina Machado and lack a clear election timetable. The talks reflect the Trump administration's efforts to advance a political transition while supporting Venezuela's economic stabilization and reopening the country to U.S. investment.

India

• Indian companies are ramping up overseas acquisitions to diversify markets, access technology, and strengthen supply chains amid geopolitical uncertainty, with outbound investments reaching $14 billion in the first four months of fiscal 2026, compared with $18.7 billion in the prior full year. Major deals include Sun Pharma's $11.7 billion acquisition of US-based Organon and Persistent Systems' €1.3 billion bid for Germany-based Nagarro.

Colombia

• Far-right populist Abelardo de la Espriella — a criminal defense attorney who has represented paramilitary commanders and money launderers — captured 44% of the vote in Colombia's first-round presidential election, setting up a June 21 runoff against leftist Iván Cepeda that presents voters with the starkest ideological choice in the country's modern political history

Cuba

• CIA Director Ratcliffe made a rare visit to Havana to warn Cuban officials they have a limited window to engage with the Trump administration, as the island faces severe fuel shortages, widespread blackouts, and growing street protests

Australia

• Australia is permanently diversifying its oil imports beyond Middle East suppliers and accelerating its renewable energy transition, even as it secures emergency fuel reserves to buffer against the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption

Canada

• Canada approved Enbridge's ~$3 billion Westcoast pipeline expansion, adding 300 million cubic feet per day of capacity as part of PM Carney's push to reduce U.S. trade dependence and boost Asian energy exports

Italy

• Trump publicly broke with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni — once his closest European ally — after she refused to send forces to the Strait of Hormuz and called his attacks on Pope Leo "unacceptable," leaving her isolated on both sides of the Atlantic

Oil Prices

• WTI: $82.40 per barrel
• +5.40% WoW; +9.98% YTD; +31.52% YoY
• Brent: $88.55 per barrel
• +5.98% WoW; +12.73% YTD; +32.48% YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.8 million bpd for the week ended August 7, up 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 593, up 5 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 424.4 million barrels, down (0.5%) YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 96.2% for the week, down from 96.5% in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.198 million barrels per day, down 6.1% YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $4.08 per gallon in the week of August 14, up 29.3% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $4.00, up 28.4% YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.91, up 26.8% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $3.65, up 31.3% YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $4.27, up 29.9% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $5.21, up 25.0% YoY.
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 1.0 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 208.7 million barrels, down (7.8%) YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.57 million bpd, down (2.5%) YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.964 million bpd, down (0.4%) YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by 0.0 million in the week of August 14.
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 107.1 million barrels, down (5.7%) YoY.
• Distillate production averaged 5.280 million bpd, up 2.8% YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.458 million bpd in the week, down (6.6%) YoY.

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 36 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 3,153 billion cubic feet, down (1.0%) YoY.

High-yield:

High yield bond yields decreased 8bps to 7.18% and spread tightened 3bps to 294bps. Leveraged loan yields decreased 13bps to 8.84% and spread tightened 4bps to 482bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 37bps and WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 25bps. High-yield and leveraged loan spreads tightened amid benign inflation data, a supportive earnings season, a pickup in capital market activity, and reduced prospects for a September Fed rate hike.

Week ended 08/14/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 08/14/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity:

• Most recent defaults include: Hughes Satellite Systems ($1.5bn, 8/2/2026), Unifrax Investment ($3.1bn, 7/26/2026), Dish DBS ($9.8bn, 6/30/2026), QVC Group ($2.2bn, 4/16/2026), Cumulus Media ($641mn, 03/05/2026), Trinseo ($390mn, 02/17/2026), Beasley Broadcasting Group ($189mn, 02/01/2026), Nine Energy Service ($300mn, 02/01/2026), Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), and Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026).

CLOs:

Week ended 08/14/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:

S&P and Moody's High Yield Ratings

Source: Bloomberg

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Source: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

Source: JP Morgan Default Monitor

Diagram L: CLO Economics

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Source: S&P Capital IQ

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Source: Pitchbook

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Source: Pitchbook

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Source: Bloomberg

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Source: Bloomberg

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads

Source: Bloomberg