NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

• The index slipped 1.1 points to 98.7 in August from July's 99.8 — July having been the strongest reading since August 2025 — though it remained just above the 52-year average of 98.0, per NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg
• Actual sales deteriorated notably, with a net -9% of owners reporting higher nominal sales over the past three months, a 5-point drop from July and the weakest reading since November 2025, even as the Uncertainty Index eased 2 points to 89
• Labor cost pressures showed a rare bright spot, falling to their lowest level as a top concern since March 2021, though elevated uncertainty (still well above the historical average of 68) continues to keep owners on the sidelines for major investment decisions

Producer Price Index (PPI)

• Headline PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month in August, in line with consensus, while the annual rate accelerated to 5.4% from July's 4.8% — 0.1 point above expectations and a sign that wholesale inflation is reaccelerating rather than cooling
• Core PPI (ex-food and energy) rose just 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast, but over three-quarters of the goods-side increase came from a 4.2% jump in energy prices, with diesel fuel alone spiking 24.1% for the month
• The report landed the same day U.S. crude oil crossed $100 per barrel, triggering a stock-market pullback, and reinforces a pipeline-inflation narrative that complicates the Fed's rate decision the following week

Consumer Price Index

• Headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month in August, matching consensus and accelerating sharply from July's 0.1%, holding the annual rate steady at 3.4% — well above the Fed's 2% target
• Core CPI increased 0.3% MoM, slightly hotter than the 0.2% forecast, though the annual core rate edged down to 2.4% from 2.5% — a mixed signal that leaves the underlying trend ambiguous
• Combined with Thursday's hot PPI print and crude oil breaking $100, the release reinforces a stagflationary undertone heading directly into the Fed's September 16–17 policy meeting, complicating the case for a rate cut

Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 206,000 in the week ended September 4, down 1,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 206,000, down 1,500 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims — those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week — decreased at 1.774 million in the week ended August 28. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed's Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.741 trillion in the week ended September 11, up $3.4 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.552 trillion, up $3.0 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $1.91 trillion in the week, down $9.7 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $40.05 trillion as of September 11, an increase of 6.9% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $32.36 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.76 trillion.

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $32.49 trillion as of June 30, 2026, an increase of 1.95% from the previous quarter, & an increase of 6.56% from the previous year.
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 121.47% as of June 30, an increase of 2.69% from the previous year.

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.4% in August year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.4% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1% in July.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.3% in August, after rising 0.2% in July.
• Core CPI increased 2.4% for the 12 months ending August.

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.1% in August from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.0% in August month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 3.4% in August from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in August month over month.

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 4.2% in August after decreasing (2.9%) in July.
• The energy commodities index rose 28.0% over the last 12 months.
• The energy services index fell (0.6%) in August after increasing 0.1% in July.
• The energy services index rose 4.0% over the last 12 months.
• The gasoline index rose 27.4% over the last 12 months.
• The fuel oil index rose 52.0% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 3.8% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 4.4% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain:

• Drewry's composite World Container Index increased to $4,476.32 per 40ft container for the week of September 11.
• Drewry's composite World Container Index has increased by 119.0% over the last 12 months.

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.3% in August after increasing 0.1% in July.
• The rent index increased 0.3% in August after increasing 0.1% in July.
• The index for lodging away from home increased 0.5% in August after decreasing (3.4%) in July.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.63%, down (0.01%) year to date.

Money Market Funds

• Money market fund assets stood at $7.97 trillion as of September 9, 2026, down (0.1%) from the previous week, & up 9.2% from the previous year.

Middle East

• Iran-backed Houthi militants seized Perim Island and the coastal town of Dhubab, taking effective control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait — one of the world's most critical shipping chokepoints — after also capturing the strategic port city of Mokha a day earlier, marking a rapid and significant expansion of the group's territorial reach along Yemen's Red Sea coast
• The advance compounds an already severe supply shock, with Saudi Arabia's crude production collapsing to its lowest level in over three decades — down 2.3 million barrels a day to just 6 million barrels a day in August, per the IEA — as the kingdom's Red Sea export route, long used to bypass Hormuz disruptions, now faces its own existential threat
• Oil prices pulled back Friday after Thursday's sharp rally, with WTI falling 3.5% to $98.85 and Brent dropping 3.8% to $103.51, as traders digested both the Houthi advance and fresh reports of projectile strikes on two vessels near Khasab, Oman, in the Strait of Hormuz
• The IEA now expects a recovery in Middle East oil flows to stretch into next year and has further cut its global demand outlook, projecting consumption will fall by 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026 to 102.4 million barrels a day — a steeper decline than its previous forecast — as escalating attacks on both the Persian Gulf and Red Sea keep key energy arteries under sustained strain

Europe

• Russia's central bank held its key rate at 14% on Friday, pausing after 10 consecutive cuts from a mid-2025 high of 21%, as Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and e-commerce logistics hubs push inflation toward 6–7% in 2026, well above the bank's 4% target
• The central bank warned that "temporary reduction in production capacities" from ongoing Ukrainian attacks — which have cut gasoline availability and driven prices sharply higher — could push inflation significantly higher still, even as it maintains that underlying price growth will eventually resume its decline once aggregate demand moderates
• Ukraine faces a $27 billion funding gap for defense and social spending through early 2027, with Zelensky warning the country needs to "lock down money for the winter" as European support strains under mounting political opposition — including AfD's electoral win in Saxony-Anhalt and Marine Le Pen's threat to cut French backing ahead of next year's presidential race
• NATO allies have earmarked only $72 billion of the $81 billion pledged at July's summit, and EU officials are now debating unpalatable options to close the gap — accelerating loan payments, borrowing against the 2028 EU budget, or tapping $200 billion in frozen Russian assets — with Belgium remaining firmly opposed to the latter over legal and financial risk concerns

China

• Huawei's criminal trial began in Brooklyn after a nearly eight-year wait, with prosecutors accusing the company of systematically stealing trade secrets from American competitors and misleading global banks about its business in Iran and North Korea, using charges including racketeering conspiracy, bank fraud, and Iran sanctions violations — the trial opens just weeks before Trump and Xi are set to meet in Washington
• The case revives tensions from the 2019 arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou, who admitted to related conduct in a 2021 deal that secured her release from Canadian custody, and analysts say Washington's decision to proceed to trial rather than settle "highlights a strong undertow within the administration toward a more hawkish posture toward China" — with a guilty verdict risking severe financial penalties and damaged banking relationships for the company
• Startup Pacific Fusion is building a nuclear-fusion facility in Albuquerque designed to produce over 1,000 times more power than the government's existing weapons-testing machine, aiming to help the U.S. modernize its nuclear arsenal without resuming underground explosive tests, as it races against a Chinese state-backed facility of similar power potential set to break ground this month
• The effort reflects an accelerating three-way nuclear arms race, with China having tripled its warhead stockpile to roughly 650 in a decade and recently test-firing a submarine-launched ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S., while the expired New START Treaty leaves no active arms-control agreement constraining either Russia or China's nuclear buildup

Americas

• Coinbase co-founder Fred Ehrsam, a crypto billionaire with no prior oil-and-gas experience, spent months living in a luxury Caracas hotel to secure production-sharing contracts for his startup Primavera with Venezuela's state oil giant PdVSA, leveraging his political ties to the Trump administration — including a $1 million donation to the Trump-Vance Inaugural Committee — despite industry veterans calling the move highly unusual for a company with no track record
• Ehrsam is one of several small, Trump-aligned wildcatters (including Hunt Oil and Aspect Holdings, both also inaugural donors) rushing into Venezuela's reopened oil sector following Maduro's ouster, even as major players like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips remain on the sidelines and critics warn the "disorganized land grab" of inexperienced entrants could undermine development of the country's complex heavy-oil fields
• President Trump signed orders banning imports of many Canadian dairy products, alcoholic beverages, and motorcycles effective September 29, retaliating for Canadian tariffs of 15–50% that took effect the same day on roughly $20 billion of U.S. goods — itself a response to Trump's late-August levies on an equivalent volume of Canadian exports
• Trump simultaneously modified existing 50% tariffs, removing cement, road salt, and some hospital products while adding levies on items like all-terrain vehicles, boats, and cheeses, and directed the removal of Canadian firms from federal procurement schedules using the untested Section 338 provision of the Tariff Act of 1930 — with talks having collapsed in late August despite the two sides appearing close to a deal, and Trump still threatening to raise Canadian metals and vehicle tariffs to 50% on January 1, 2027

Russia / Ukraine

• Ukraine's economic-pressure drone campaign is inflicting severe damage across Russia's economy — refinery throughput has fallen to 3.8 million barrels a day from 5 million a year earlier, e-commerce warehouse strikes have caused over $10 billion in damage, wheat exports have collapsed more than 50%, and airport closures surged nearly fivefold to 993 in August alone — with Putin now acknowledging total losses at roughly 1% of GDP ($25 billion) while insisting the damage is "not critical"

Congo

• The deadliest Ebola outbreak in Congo's history — already exceeding 3,200 deaths — is spiraling further out of control as unpaid health workers, protesting delayed wages, have begun allowing grieving families to touch highly infectious corpses in direct violation of containment protocols, with the UN warning its agencies on the ground will run out of funds within weeks despite over $900 million pledged by the U.S. and EU

South Korea

• South Korea is nearing a $100+ billion energy investment deal with the U.S. — potentially financing up to eight nuclear reactors and a Texas natural-gas plant to power AI data centers — as part of last year's trade pact that lowered U.S. tariffs on Korean goods from 25% to 15% in exchange for $350 billion in Korean investment commitments, with an initial $2 billion seed payment possible before month's end

Japan

• Japanese startup Terra Drone is positioning autonomous interceptor drones as a cost-effective alternative to multimillion-dollar missile defenses against cheap attack drones, leveraging frontline experience from its Ukrainian subsidiaries and a new Japanese defense contract that has sent its stock up over 860% this year, while its CEO pushes Tokyo to mandate domestic component production to reduce dependence on Chinese-dominated drone supply chains

India / China

• Chinese leader Xi Jinping is visiting New Delhi this weekend for a BRICS summit — his first visit since 2019 — signaling a tentative thaw between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, driven largely by shared uncertainty over their relationships with the U.S. under Trump, with India easing rules to allow Chinese minority stakes in electronics and solar manufacturing even as analysts call the rapprochement largely cosmetic given the unresolved border dispute and China's deep ties to Pakistan

Oil Prices

• WTI: $100.31 per barrel
• +9.65% WoW; +33.89% YTD; +57.55% YoY
• Brent: $104.76 per barrel
• +8.81% WoW; +33.37% YTD; +57.84% YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.9 million bpd for the week ended September 4, up 0.1 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 591, up 3 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 424.1 million barrels, down (0.1%) YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 97.8% for the week, down from 98.0% in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.770 million barrels per day, down 8.8% YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $4.30 per gallon in the week of September 11, up 34.7% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $4.15, up 30.7% YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.99, up 27.0% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $3.79, up 33.8% YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $4.45, up 32.1% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $5.49, up 27.0% YoY.
• Motor gasoline inventories were up by 1.3 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 206.9 million barrels, down (5.9%) YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.31 million bpd, down (2.9%) YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.551 million bpd, up 0.5% YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by 2.1 million in the week of September 11.
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 106.3 million barrels, down (11.9%) YoY.
• Distillate production averaged 5.348 million bpd, up 2.3% YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.678 million bpd in the week, up 8.9% YoY.

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 40 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 3,254 billion cubic feet, down (2.4%) YoY.

High-yield:

High-yield bond yields increased 28bps to 7.58% while spreads tightened 1bp to 292bps. Leveraged loan yields increased 22bps to 9.17% while spreads tightened 1bp to 470bps. WTD high-yield bond returns were negative 53bps and WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 18bps. High-yield bond & leveraged loan yields moved sharply higher as escalating Middle East tensions pushed Treasury yields and oil prices upward. A firmer-than-expected August CPI print further dimmed expectations of a Fed rate cut next week. HY yields reached a five-month high, whereas leveraged loans remained relatively resilient and outperformed HY by the widest margin in six months. Loan demand remained strong, supported by 11 consecutive weeks of fund inflows, and primary-market activity continued to be dominated by repricing and refi transactions.

Week ended 09/11/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 09/11/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity:

• Most recent defaults include: Hughes Satellite Systems ($1.5bn, 08/02/2026), Unifrax Investment ($3.1bn, 07/26/2026), Dish DBS ($9.8bn, 06/30/2026), QVC Group ($2.2bn, 04/16/2026), Cumulus Media ($641mn, 03/05/2026), Trinseo ($390mn, 02/17/2026), Beasley Broadcasting Group ($189mn, 02/01/2026), Nine Energy Service ($300mn, 02/01/2026), Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), and Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026).

CLOs:

Week ended 09/11/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:

S&P and Moody's High Yield Ratings

Source: Bloomberg

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Source: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns

Diagram J: New Issue – Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

Source: JP Morgan Default Monitor

Diagram L: CLO Economics

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Source: S&P Capital IQ

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Source: Pitchbook

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Source: Pitchbook

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Source: Bloomberg

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Source: Bloomberg

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads

Source: Bloomberg