NFIB Optimism Index

• Small business optimism dipped slightly in October to 98.2, though still above the long-term average; the Uncertainty Index dropped sharply by 12 points to its lowest level this year
• Labor quality remained the top problem for owners, cited by 27%, while 32% reported unfilled job openings—matching the highest level since 2020
• Profit trends weakened significantly, with a net -25% reporting lower profits, driven mostly by weaker sales

Government Shutdown Update

• The 43-day U.S. government shutdown ended after President Trump signed a bipartisan funding package that keeps most agencies funded through Jan. 30
• The shutdown caused major disruptions — 42 million food-aid recipients were affected, 670,000 federal employees were furloughed, and the economic cost is estimated at $15 billion per week
• Back pay for federal workers begins as early as Sunday for some agencies, while others will receive paychecks by Nov. 19

U.S. Tariff & Trade

• President Trump signed an executive order this week modifying the IEEPA reciprocal tariffs by removing a broad range of agricultural products including vegetables, coffee, nuts, fruits, and beef from the additional tariff schedule, effective for entries after November 13
• A bilateral trade deal with Switzerland will see U.S. tariffs on Swiss goods cut from about 39 percent to 15 percent, with the Swiss side pledging ~$200 billion in U.S. investments by end of 2028
• The White House announced new trade deals with Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala and El Salvador under which certain food-and-agricultural import could face lower tariffs, while most goods would continue to face existing reciprocal rates
• The Department of the Interior added ten minerals, including copper, boron, silver, uranium, and potash, to the 2025 Critical Minerals List, which could become subject to additional Section 232 tariffs pending the outcome of the critical-minerals investigation launched by President Trump in April 2025

Jobless Claims

• The jobless claims report was not released last week due to the U.S. government shutdown

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.580 trillion in the week ended November 14, up $7.7 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.193 trillion, down $0.3 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.07 trillion in the week, down $7.2 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.15 trillion as of November 14, an increase of 6.1% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $30.65 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.47 trillion.

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S GDP stands at $30.49 trillion as of June 30, 2025, an increase of 1.48% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 4.59% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 118.78% as of June 30, a decrease of -0.72% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.0% in September year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4% in August.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in September, after rising 0.3% in August.
• Core CPI increased 3.0% for the 12 months ending September.

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.7% in September from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in September month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 3.7% in September from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.1% in September month over month.

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 3.8% in September after increasing 1.7% in August
• The energy commodities index fell (0.4%) over the last 12 months
• The energy services index fell (0.8%) in September after decreasing (0.3%) in August
• The energy services index rose 6.4% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index fell (0.5%) over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index fell 4.1% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 5.1% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 11.7% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $1,858.71 per 40ft container for the week of November 14
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (46.0%) over the last 12 months.

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.2% in September after increasing 0.4% in August
• The rent index increased 0.2% in September after increasing 0.4% in August
• The index for lodging away from home decreased (1.4%) in September after increasing 0.3% in August.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.88% , down (0.45%) year to date.

Middle East

• Benjamin Netanyahu’s government in Israel faced a strong backlash from far-right coalition members after it indicated support for a pathway to a Palestinian state — Netanyahu reaffirmed opposition to such a state
• Iran’s IRGC seized the Cyprus-registered tanker Talara in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming it carried unauthorized goods and escalating tensions amid stalled nuclear negotiations with the West
• Donald Trump is pushing for Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalise relations under the Abraham Accords, but Saudi demands a concrete pathway to Palestinian statehood remain a major barrier
• Israeli settler violence escalated in the West Bank this week, including the burning of a mosque and assaults on Palestinians and Israeli soldiers, prompting condemnation from Israeli leaders and concern from the U.S.

Russia

• In response to economic pressure, Russia announced tax increases and broader consumer-tax burdens — including a VAT hike from 20% to 22% and reduced exemptions for small businesses — to finance its budget and military efforts
• Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions were hit by waves of attacks involving ~430 drones and 18 missiles launched by Russian forces, killing at least six people in the capital and two in the south, and causing power outages in several oblasts 
• A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly struck a major Russian oil refinery in the Ryazan regio, causing fire and explosions; Russian officials offered alternate explanations
• Belgium is blocking an EU plan to fund Ukraine with a €183 billion loan backed by frozen Russian assets held at Euroclear, fearing major financial and legal risks if those assets ever must be returned to Moscow 

China

• China warned its citizens to avoid travel to Japan after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said a Chinese move to seize Taiwan could threaten Japan’s survival and draw it into conflict, sharply escalating tensions between Beijing and Tokyo
• China’s economy showed continued weakness in October, with retail sales (+2.9%), industrial production (+4.9%), and fixed-asset investment (-1.7%) all slowing, marking the sharpest multi-month investment decline in decades
• Severe shortages of advanced AI chips in China—driven by U.S. export restrictions—have pushed Beijing to intervene in SMIC’s chip distribution and prioritize Huawei, while tech firms rely on bundling thousands of lower-capacity chips to train AI models
• China is preparing a “validated end-user” export system that would fast-track rare-earth shipments to approved civilian companies while blocking access for firms linked to the U.S. military

UK

• U.K. markets fell sharply after reports that the Labour government may drop planned income-tax hikes, raising investor concerns about fiscal credibility and a growing budget shortfall ahead of the Nov. 26 budget

Tanzania

• Tanzania’s government, led by President Samia Suluhu Hassan, crushed Gen Z–driven protests over a disputed election and rising living costs with lethal force—opposition groups

Venezuela 

• The Caribbean Sea is now host to an expanded U.S. naval deployment — including the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group and other warships — aimed at countering alleged drug-cartel movement, heightening tensions with Venezuela and its President Nicolás Maduro over perceived regime-change risks

Sudan

• Sudan’s civil war has taken a brutal turn in Darfur, where the Rapid Support Forces – an Arab-led militia backed by the U.A.E. and armed with Chinese drones – are carrying out mass killings and executions of civilians in El Fasher, prompting warnings of a potential genocide

France

• French police arrested suspects in the Louvre Museum heist, including one attempting to flee France from Charles de Gaulle Airport. Four thieves used a truck-mounted lift and angle grinders to steal eight pieces of jewelry valued at $102 million USD

India

• After President Trump claimed that India agreed to stop buying Russian oil, New Delhi issued a carefully worded response—neither confirming nor directly denying the statement—to avoid jeopardizing ongoing trade talks with Washington. India emphasized its efforts to diversify energy sources and expand U.S. imports, while analysts noted that reducing reliance on Russian crude, which supplies about one-third of India’s oil, would be difficult and costly in the near term

Colombia

• President Trump said the U.S. will immediately cut off all aid and subsidies to Colombia, saying President Gustavo Petro’s government hasn’t done enough to curb drug production. The decision affects over $200 million in U.S. assistance and follows rising tensions between the two countries over anti-narcotics policy

Oil Prices

• WTI: $60.09 per barrel
  
• +0.57% WoW; (15.11%) YTD; (12.19%) YoY
• Brent: $64.20 per barrel
  
• +0.90% WoW; (13.55%) YTD; (11.18%) YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.9 million bpd for the week ended November 7, up 0.2 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 549, up 1 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 427.6 million barrels, down (0.6) YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 89.4% for the week, up from 86.0%
  in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 5.924 million barrels per day, down (32.0%) YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $3.08 per gallon in the week of
  November 14, up (0.1%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $3.03, down (2.8%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $2.99, up (1.6%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $2.70, down (1.0%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $3.04, down (5.0%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $4.30, up 5.8% YoY.
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 0.9 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 205.1 million barrels, down (1.8%) YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.93 million bpd, up 7.0% YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 9.028 million bpd, up 7.2% YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by -0.6 million in the week of November 14
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 110.9 million barrels, down (3.0%) YoY
• Distillate production averaged 5.028 million bpd, up 3.9% YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 4.018 million bpd in the week, up 6.4% YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 45 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 3,960 billion cubic feet, down (0.2%) YoY.

High-yield:

High yield bond yields remained unchanged at 7.03% and spreads increased 5bps to 339bps. Leveraged loan yields decreased 6bps to 7.92% and spreads decreased 1bp to 459bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 9bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 14bps. 10yr treasury yields increased 2bps to 4.11%. High yield spreads widened as markets digested the government’s reopening and rising expectations that the Fed may hold off on rate cuts in December. Leveraged loan prices were steady, supported by renewed retail inflows, solid earnings updates, and more cautious Fed commentary.

Week ended 11/14/2025

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 11/14/2025

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity:

• Most recent defaults include: Office Properties Trust ($1.7bn, 10/31/25), GPS Hospitality ($400mn, 10/30/25), Jordan Health Services ($1.0bn, 10/15/25), Astra Acquisition ($1bn, 9/30/25), First Brands ($4.4bn, 9/29/25), Spirit Airlines ($852mn, 8/29/25), ModivCare ($1.1bn, 8/20/25), Anastasia Beverly Hills ($606mn, 8/11/25), Claire’s Stores ($506mn, 8/6/25), Maverick Gaming ($215mn, 7/17/25), and Del Monte Foods ($864mn, 7/2/25).

CLOs:

Week ended 11/14/2025

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note:High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

‍Diagram L: CLO Economics

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts

Diagram R: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram S: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram T: SOFR CURVE

Diagram U: CMBS Spreads

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads

ZCGC Real Estate:

• As of October 2025, JPMorgan Chase reports that planned U.S. data center capacity has climbed to more than sixty gigawatts, while only a small share is built or under construction. The jump reflects accelerating AI and cloud demand, with more than five trillion dollars of global investment expected in data center and AI infrastructure over the next five years
• McKinsey’s 2025 analysis shows U.S. data centers will add about four hundred sixty terawatt hours of electricity demand by 2030, which is triple current usage. The chart’s gap between planned and built capacity points to major power constraints. EESI further warns that data centers may require up to ninety gigawatts of additional annual electricity demand by 2030, most of which will rely on fossil fuels because renewable infrastructure is not keeping pace
• The United States has added only two nuclear reactors in thirty years and building even one takes more than a decade, which underscores the challenge of supplying enough power for planned projects. Without significant expansion in power generation, many developments may face delays or cancellations, affecting investment returns and supply chains for companies such as NVIDIA and Microsoft
• Teams should track energy policy closely and consider diversified energy strategies to mitigate these risks. The imbalance between planned and built capacity signals the need for careful planning as the sector grows
• Actionable Recommendation: Engage energy experts to assess local grid capacity and explore onsite renewable partnerships, consistent with the one hundred twenty two gigawatts of new data center capacity projected for 2026 through 2030 in JPMorgan’s base case

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index