Factory Orders

• US factory orders surged 1.5% in March, well above the 0.5% economists expected, marking the biggest monthly gain since November
• The jump was driven by the largest single-month increase in computer and electronics orders in 25 years, reaching $29.6 billion 
• Despite the strong data, manufacturers face headwinds from the war with Iran, which has pushed oil prices up nearly 50% and stretched supplier delivery times 

New Home Sales

• New home sales rebounded to 682k in March after January's dip, returning to the middle of their two-year range
• Buyer leverage remained elevated but eased slightly, with 8.5 months of supply on the market — down from 9.1 the prior month 
• Median prices fell 6.2% year-over-year to $387,400, reflecting affordability pressure and a shift toward cheaper homes

Nonfarm Payrolls

• April added 115,000 jobs, well above the 55,000 forecast but down from March's unusually strong 185,000
• Unemployment held at 4.3%, though wage growth and labor force participation both came in weaker than expected 
• The report signals a stable but sluggish labor market, with healthcare and transportation gaining while tech-related jobs continued their long decline

Jobless Claims 

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., increased to 200,000 in the week ended May 1, up 10,000 from the prior week
• The four-week moving average was 203,250, down 4,500 from the prior week
• Continuing claims – those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week – decreased at 1.766 million in the week ended April 24. This figure is reported with a one-week lag

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.710 trillion in the week ended May 8, up $9.6 billion from the prior week
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.427 trillion, up $5.4 billion from the prior week
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $1.98 trillion in the week, down $14.0 billion from the prior week

Total Public Debt 

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.93 trillion as of May 8, an increase of 7.5% from the previous year
• Debt held by the public was $31.26 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.70 trillion

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $31.44 trillion as of December 31, 2025, an increase of 1.11% from the previous quarter, & an increase of 5.42% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 122.49% as of December 31, an increase of 1.05% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.3% in March year over year
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.9% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.3% in February
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in March, after rising 0.2% in February
• Core CPI increased 2.6% for the 12 months ending March

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.0% in March from the same month a year earlier, and decreased -0.2% in March month over month
• The food away from home index increased 3.8% in March from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.2% in March month over month

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 21.3% in March after increasing 1.1% in February
• The energy commodities index rose 19.4% over the last 12 months
• The energy services index fell (0.2%) in March after decreasing (0.1%) in February
• The energy services index rose 5.0% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index rose 18.9% over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index rose 44.2% over the last 12 months
• The index for electricity rose 4.6% over the last 12 months
• The index for natural gas rose 6.4% over the last 12 months

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $2,308.78 per 40 ft container for the week of April 10
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has increased by 1.9% over the last 12 months

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.3% in March after increasing 0.2% in February
• The rent index increased 0.3% in March after increasing 0.2% in February
• The index for lodging away from home increased 4.6% in March after increasing 3.8% in February

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.64%, flat 0.00% year to date

Middle East

• The U.S. Navy successfully escorted two vessels through the Strait of Hormuz before pausing the operation after Iran retaliated with missiles and drones, striking ships and the UAE's oil hub at Fujairah 
• Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, alarmed by the U.S. downplaying Iran's attacks, briefly blocked American access to their bases and airspace before restoring it following direct calls between Trump and the Saudi crown prince
• Some 20,000 sailors remain trapped in the Strait of Hormuz for over two months, with crews rationing food and water and dodging Iranian drones
• With insurance premiums up as much as 32-fold and ship owners facing bankruptcy, the humanitarian crisis is deepening, leaving low-wage seafarers from developing nations to fend for themselves

Europe

• Rubio visited the Vatican and Italian PM Meloni to repair relations strained by Trump's false claim that Pope Leo XIV supports Iran having nuclear weapons 
• The trip highlighted Rubio's role as the administration's diplomatic damage-control envoy, though European allies remain skeptical he can meaningfully restrain Trump 
• Three passengers died and at least five more were infected with hantavirus during a 33-day Atlantic cruise, in an unprecedented case aboard a ship
• The outbreak went unrecognized for weeks before the cruise line escalated its emergency response 

China

• Ahead of a Trump-Xi summit on May 14-15, both sides are weighing formal AI talks to manage risks like autonomous military systems and rogue use of open-source models 
• The effort mirrors Cold War-era nuclear stability frameworks, though skeptics note China has historically ignored crisis hotlines when tensions spike
• Two former Chinese defense ministers, Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu, received suspended death sentences for corruption — the harshest punishments handed to disgraced generals under Xi 
• The verdicts cap a sweeping military purge that has removed most of China's high command, raising questions about combat readiness even as Beijing steps up pressure on Taiwan

India

• Modi's BJP won a historic landslide in West Bengal — a state it had never before carried — as economic frustration and Hindu nationalist consolidation continue expanding the party's dominance across India

Australia

• Australia is permanently diversifying its oil imports beyond Middle East suppliers and accelerating its renewable energy transition, even as it secures emergency fuel reserves to buffer against the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption

Canada

• Canada approved Enbridge's ~$3 billion Westcoast pipeline expansion, adding 300 million cubic feet per day of capacity as part of PM Carney's push to reduce U.S. trade dependence and boost Asian energy exports

Italy

• Trump publicly broke with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni — once his closest European ally — after she refused to send forces to the Strait of Hormuz and called his attacks on Pope Leo "unacceptable," leaving her isolated on both sides of the Atlantic

Japan

• Japan will release an additional 20 days' worth of oil reserves in early May to stabilize energy prices, as the country relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its crude imports and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked

New Zealand

• New Zealand plans to spend roughly $7 billion on its military, including enhanced strike capabilities and new helicopters, aiming to reverse military attrition by recruiting 2,500 personnel in the coming years

Venezuela

• A Colombian military C-130 carrying 128 people crashed shortly after takeoff in the southern jungle, killing 66, injuring dozens and prompting criticism over long-standing deficiencies in military aircraft and airport infrastructure

Cuba

• Cuba’s nationwide blackout – driven by an obsolete, oil-dependent power grid and worsened by U.S. oil restrictions – has crippled basic services, intensified economic collapse, and fueled growing social unrest, with no near-term fix in sight

Hungary

• Hungarian authorities briefly detained seven Oschadbank employees and confiscated over $80 million in cash and gold from trucks en route to Ukraine, escalating a conflict between the two countries over oil deliveries

Oil Prices

• WTI: $95.42 per barrel
• (6.40%) WoW; +27.36% YTD; +64.32% YoY
• Brent: $101.29 per barrel
• (6.36%) WoW; +28.95% YTD; +61.19% YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.6 million bpd for the week ended May 1, down 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 548, up 1 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 457.2 million barrels, up 4.3% YoY
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 90.1% for the week, up from 89.6% in the prior week
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 5.750 million barrels per day, down (9.6%) YoY

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $4.55 per gallon in the week of May 8, up 44.5% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $4.36, up 40.3% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $4.49, up 44.4% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $4.00, up 41.8% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $4.49, up 38.7% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $5.72, up 33.2% YoY
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 2.5 million barrels from the prior week
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 219.8 million barrels, down (2.6%) YoY
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.56 million bpd, down (1.5%) YoY
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.813 million bpd, up 1.1% YoY

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by -1.3 million in the week of May 8
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 102.3 million barrels, down (4.1%) YoY
• Distillate production averaged 4.916 million bpd, up 5.7% YoY
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.362 million bpd in the week, down (4.5%) YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 63 billion cubic feet last week
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 2,205 billion cubic feet, up 2.8% YoY

High-yield:

High yield bond yields decreased 3 bps to 7.05% and spreads tightened 4bps to 311bps. Leveraged loan yields decreased 3bps to 8.53% while spreads tightened 8bps to 480bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 19bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 25bps. 10yr treasury yields increased 1bps to 4.39%. High-yield and leveraged loan spreads tightened amid signs of a potential negotiation breakthrough with Iran, supported by strong earnings, active capital markets, continued inflows, and resilient labor market data. 

Week ended 05/08/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 05/08/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

Most recent defaults include: QVC Group ($2.2bn, 4/16/2026), Cumulus Media ($641mn, 03/05/2026), Trinseo ($390mn, 02/17/2026), Beasley Broadcasting Group ($189mn, 02/01/2026), Nine Energy Service ($300mn, 02/01/2026), Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026), Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025), and New Fortress Energy ($3.5bn, 11/15/2025).

CLOs: 

Week ended 05/08/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM 

Diagram L: CLO Economics 

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

ZCGC Real Estate:

• $715B combined 2026 CapEx across Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft (up +98% YoY, ~3x 2024, 5x 2023)
• Each hyperscaler’s 2026 spend ≈ prior two years combined, with Amazon at ~$200B, Google and Microsoft at ~$190B each, Meta at $125–145B
•  A structural shift from asset-light to capital-heavy as Big Tech races for AI dominance and locks in compute, chips, and data center capacity
•  Near-term tailwind: cloud revenues accelerating and S&P 500 EPS estimates rising, helped by the accounting mismatch,  revenue hits immediately while CapEx is capitalized over years
• The open questions: ROI timing, power and grid constraints, and whether AI monetization can match the historic scale of investment

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index