Pending Home Sales

• Pending home sales rose 1.4% month-over-month in April and are up 3.2% year-over-year — marking the third consecutive monthly gain and the broadest sign of stabilization seen in the housing market in years 
• Three of four regions posted monthly increases, with only the South slipping, while buyers are navigating rising economic uncertainty and a slight uptick in mortgage rates with the 30-year fixed averaging around 6.33–6.36% 
• Oxford Economics expects home sales to move sideways for the next couple of quarters before gradually picking up late in 2026, contingent on the Fed cutting rates — meaning today's contract signings likely preview a still-sluggish closing environment through summer

Housing Starts

• Housing starts rebounded 7.2% from December to a 1.487M annual rate and are up 9.5% year-over-year, beating expectations and snapping a streak of soft readings 
• The gain was entirely multifamily-driven — units in buildings with five or more jumped to 524K, while single-family starts actually slipped 2.8% from December to 935K, a sign that the detached home segment remains under pressure 
• With 1.268M units still under construction and permits down 5.4% month-over-month, the pipeline is gradually thinning — suggesting starts momentum may be hard to sustain into spring

Consumer Sentiment

• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a final reading of 44.8 in May, sharply below the preliminary 48.2 and marking the third straight monthly decline to a record low — driven by surging gas prices tied to the Iran conflict and persistent tariff anxiety 
• Current conditions collapsed while the inflation outlook worsened, with roughly one-third of consumers spontaneously citing gas prices and about 30% mentioning tariffs, and real income expectations continuing a decline that began in March 
• Lower-income consumers, those without college degrees, independents, and Republicans all posted their weakest readings of the current presidential term, suggesting the pain is concentrated among groups most sensitive to energy and everyday cost pressures

Jobless Claims 

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 209,000 in the week ended May 15, down 3,000 from the prior week
• The four-week moving average was 202,500, down 1,500 from the prior week
• Continuing claims – those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week – increased at 1.782 million in the week ended May 8. This figure is reported with a one-week lag

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.714 trillion in the week ended May 22, down $14.9 billion from the prior week
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.453 trillion, up $9.3 billion from the prior week
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $1.98 trillion in the week, down $0.5 billion from the prior week

Total Public Debt 

• Total public debt outstanding was $39.07 trillion as of May 22, an increase of 7.9% from the previous year
• Debt held by the public was $31.37 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.70 trillion

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $31.44 trillion as of December 31, 2025, an increase of 1.11% from the previous quarter, & an increase of 5.42% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 122.49% as of December 31, an increase of 1.05% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.8% in April year over year
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.6% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.9% in March
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.4% in April, after rising 0.2% in March
• Core CPI increased 2.8% for the 12 months ending April

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 3.0% in April from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.7% in April month over month
• The food away from home index increased 3.6% in April from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.2% in April month over month

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 5.6% in April after increasing 21.3% in March
• The energy commodities index rose 29.2% over the last 12 months
• The energy services index rose 0.9% in April after decreasing (0.2%) in March
• The energy services index rose 5.4% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index rose 28.4% over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index rose 54.3% over the last 12 months
• The index for electricity rose 6.1% over the last 12 months
• The index for natural gas rose 3.0% over the last 12 months

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $2,553.39 per 40 ft container for the week of May 15
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has increased by 14.3% over the last 12 months

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.6% in April after increasing 0.3% in March
• The rent index increased 0.6% in April after increasing 0.3% in March
• The index for lodging away from home increased 4.0% in April after increasing 4.6% in March

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.62%, down (0.02%) year to date

Middle East

• Trump and Netanyahu held two testy calls this week, with Netanyahu pushing to resume strikes on Iran while Trump defended ongoing nuclear negotiations 
• The U.S. and Israel could renew attacks within days or weeks, with potential targets including Iranian energy and infrastructure — as Trump told reporters the situation is "right on the borderline" 
• A WSJ investigation found billions in crypto flowing through Binance to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, with one sanctioned Iranian operator alone moving $850 million through the exchange over two years 
• Internal compliance alerts repeatedly flagged the accounts' Tehran origins, yet many remained open for months — raising fresh scrutiny as the Justice Department now investigates Iran's use of Binance to evade U.S. sanctions

Europe

• Germany's Ifo business confidence index edged up to 84.9 in May from 84.5 in April, though it remains near multi-year lows as the Iran war-driven energy shock weighs heavily on the country's manufacturing sector 
• Private-sector activity contracted for a second straight month and forward-looking expectations continued to darken, putting pressure on the ECB ahead of an anticipated rate hike next month 
• EU negotiators reached a provisional deal to advance the U.S.-EU trade agreement signed last summer, ahead of Trump's July 4 deadline threatening 25% tariffs on European car imports 
• The agreement includes meaningful safeguards allowing Brussels to suspend its commitments if U.S. tariffs harm European manufacturers — with the deal set to remain in force through 202

China

• Following the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, China agreed to purchase 200 Boeing jets and resume U.S. beef and poultry imports, with both sides outlining a framework for reciprocal tariff reductions covering at least $30 billion in goods each 
• Beijing also signaled openness on rare earth export controls while pushing Washington to honor agreed tariff caps and eliminate further unilateral duties in future talks 
• China's economy broadly weakened in April, with retail sales growing just 0.2% year-over-year — the slowest since 2022 — while industrial output, property investment, and fixed-asset investment all missed expectations 
• The Iran war is compounding domestic fragility, driving commodity prices to a 45-month high in factory-gate inflation and threatening to erode manufacturer margins even as exports remain the one bright spot

Africa

• The WHO declared a global health emergency over an Ebola outbreak in Congo and Uganda, with around 80 deaths and over 200 suspected cases recorded — including cases in both countries' capitals — involving the rare Bundibugyo strain for which no approved vaccine or treatment currently exists

Cuba

• CIA Director Ratcliffe made a rare visit to Havana to warn Cuban officials they have a limited window to engage with the Trump administration, as the island faces severe fuel shortages, widespread blackouts, and growing street protests

India

• Modi's BJP won a historic landslide in West Bengal — a state it had never before carried — as economic frustration and Hindu nationalist consolidation continue expanding the party's dominance across India

Australia

• Australia is permanently diversifying its oil imports beyond Middle East suppliers and accelerating its renewable energy transition, even as it secures emergency fuel reserves to buffer against the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption

Canada

• Canada approved Enbridge's ~$3 billion Westcoast pipeline expansion, adding 300 million cubic feet per day of capacity as part of PM Carney's push to reduce U.S. trade dependence and boost Asian energy exports

Italy

• Trump publicly broke with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni — once his closest European ally — after she refused to send forces to the Strait of Hormuz and called his attacks on Pope Leo "unacceptable," leaving her isolated on both sides of the Atlantic

Japan

• Japan will release an additional 20 days' worth of oil reserves in early May to stabilize energy prices, as the country relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its crude imports and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked

New Zealand

• New Zealand plans to spend roughly $7 billion on its military, including enhanced strike capabilities and new helicopters, aiming to reverse military attrition by recruiting 2,500 personnel in the coming years

Venezuela

• A Colombian military C-130 carrying 128 people crashed shortly after takeoff in the southern jungle, killing 66, injuring dozens and prompting criticism over long-standing deficiencies in military aircraft and airport infrastructure

Oil Prices

• WTI: $96.16 per barrel
• (8.78%) WoW; +28.35% YTD; +56.18% YoY
• Brent: $103.16 per barrel
• (5.58%) WoW; +31.33% YTD; +60.09% YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.7 million bpd for the week ended May 15, down 0.1 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 558, up 7 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 445.0 million barrels, up 0.4% YoY
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 91.6% for the week, down from 91.7% in the prior week
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 5.901 million barrels per day, down (1.2%) YoY

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $4.55 per gallon in the week of May 22, up 42.4% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $4.42, up 42.3% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $4.49, up 44.4% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $4.05, up 40.4% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $4.73, up 45.1% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $5.74, up 29.8% YoY
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 1.5 million barrels from the prior week
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 214.2 million barrels, down (5.0%) YoY
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.34 million bpd, down (2.3%) YoY
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.767 million bpd, up 1.4% YoY

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by 0.4 million in the week of May 22
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 102.9 million barrels, down (1.2%) YoY
• Distillate production averaged 5.006 million bpd, up 6.2% YoY
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.552 million bpd in the week, up 4.1% YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 101 billion cubic feet last week
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 2,391 billion cubic feet, up 0.7% YoY

High-yield:

High yield bond yields increased 8bps to 7.19% and spreads widened 3bps to 309bps. Leveraged loan yields increased 21bps to 8.82% and spreads widened 8bps to 487bps. WTD high yield bond returns were negative 15bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were negative 8bps. 10yr treasury yields increased 9bps to 4.57%. HY and LL spreads widened as investors continued to navigate volatile U.S.-Iran conflict headlines despite resilient economic data, while loan capital markets recorded a second consecutive week of the heaviest issuance in four months, with most proceeds used for repricing. 

Week ended 05/22/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 05/22/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

Most recent defaults include: QVC Group ($2.2bn, 4/16/2026), Cumulus Media ($641mn, 03/05/2026), Trinseo ($390mn, 02/17/2026), Beasley Broadcasting Group ($189mn, 02/01/2026), Nine Energy Service ($300mn, 02/01/2026), Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026), Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), and United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025).

CLOs: 

Week ended 05/22/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM 

Diagram L: CLO Economics 

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index