CPI

• U.S. inflation surged to a nearly three-year high of 3.8% in April, driven primarily by a steep rise in gas prices following the outbreak of the Iran war
• The back-to-back monthly increases in the consumer price index are the worst in four years, with economists warning the rate could briefly exceed 4% in the coming months 
• The Federal Reserve is now expected to hold interest rates steady through the summer, as cutting them amid rising inflation would be difficult despite last year's three rate reductions 

Retail Sales

• U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% in April for the third straight month, though the gain was largely inflated by consumers spending more at gas stations due to war-driven price increases
• Since consumer prices rose 0.6% in the same period, shoppers' purchasing power actually declined despite the headline spending increase 
• Economists warn that if high gas prices persist, households will be forced to redirect spending away from discretionary items, potentially slowing economic growth heading into summer

Industrial Production

• U.S. industrial production surged 0.7% in April, far exceeding the 0.2% gain expected, driven largely by a 5.3% rebound in vehicle output and a 1.6% jump in utilities production
• Manufacturing led the recovery with a 0.6% monthly gain, while high-tech industries continued their strong run with a 1.0% monthly increase 
• Capacity utilization climbed to 76.1%, its highest level since August 2025, though it remains more than 3 percentage points below its long-term historical average

Jobless Claims 

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., increased to 211,000 in the week ended May 8, up 12,000 from the prior week
• The four-week moving average was 203,750, up 750 from the prior week
• Continuing claims – those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week – increased at 1.782 million in the week ended May 1. This figure is reported with a one-week lag

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.729 trillion in the week ended May 15, up $19.0 billion from the prior week
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.443 trillion, up $16.1 billion from the prior week
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $1.98 trillion in the week, down $7.0 billion from the prior week

Total Public Debt 

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.95 trillion as of May 15, an increase of 7.6% from the previous year
• Debt held by the public was $31.28 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.70 trillion

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $31.44 trillion as of December 31, 2025, an increase of 1.11% from the previous quarter, & an increase of 5.42% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 122.49% as of December 31, an increase of 1.05% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.8% in April year over year
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.6% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.9% in March
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.4% in April, after rising 0.2% in March
• Core CPI increased 2.8% for the 12 months ending April

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 3.0% in April from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.7% in April month over month
• The food away from home index increased 3.6% in April from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.2% in April month over month

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 5.6% in April after increasing 21.3% in March
• The energy commodities index rose 29.2% over the last 12 months
• The energy services index rose 0.9% in April after decreasing (0.2%) in March
• The energy services index rose 5.4% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index rose 28.4% over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index rose 54.3% over the last 12 months
• The index for electricity rose 6.1% over the last 12 months
• The index for natural gas rose 3.0% over the last 12 months

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $2,553.39 per 40 ft container for the week of May 15
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has increased by 14.3% over the last 12 months

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.6% in April after increasing 0.3% in March
• The rent index increased 0.6% in April after increasing 0.3% in March
• The index for lodging away from home increased 4.0% in April after increasing 4.6% in March

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.63%, down (0.01%) year to date

Middle East

• Gulf nations have rapidly built overland trucking and rail networks to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz, with one Saudi company alone scaling to 3,500 trucks running around the clock 
• The routes can't fully replace seaborne shipping, but have acted as a critical buffer keeping food, fertilizer, and other goods flowing to global markets
• Netanyahu claimed he secretly visited the U.A.E. to meet its president during the Iran war, but the U.A.E. flatly denied the meeting ever took place
• The dispute highlights the limits of the Israel-U.A.E. relationship, as Netanyahu is widely viewed across the region as a destabilizing figure, and the U.A.E. didn't want to be drawn into Israeli domestic politics ahead of his upcoming elections

Europe

• The Pentagon abruptly canceled the deployment of a 4,000-strong armored brigade to Poland as part of Trump's broader plan to shrink the U.S. military presence in Europe 
• The move, which surprised many military officials, follows an announced withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany and is part of a strategy to shift conventional defense responsibilities to European allies 
• Eurozone industrial output edged up 0.2% in March, partly due to manufacturers frontloading production ahead of expected energy price rises from the Iran war
• The resilience is unlikely to last, with economists warning that a mild recession is possible if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed 

China

• Trump and Xi declared a "reset" in relations after a Beijing summit focused on trade and stability, but deep disagreements over Taiwan, Iran, and China's economic ambitions mean the rivalry remains very much intact 
• Trump left without concrete trade deals — China's agreement to buy just 200 Boeing aircraft, well below the 500 expected, sent Boeing's stock down nearly 4% — and analysts warn Beijing is mainly trying to lock in a favorable arrangement that outlasts Trump
• Chinese-born tech talent is increasingly leaving U.S. companies like Meta and Google to return home, driven by competitive salaries, government subsidies, and a tougher U.S. immigration climate 
• The trend is directly fueling China's AI ambitions, with prominent defections from Google and OpenAI now heading research at ByteDance and Tencent

‍Cuba

• CIA Director Ratcliffe made a rare visit to Havana to warn Cuban officials they have a limited window to engage with the Trump administration, as the island faces severe fuel shortages, widespread blackouts, and growing street protests

India

• Modi's BJP won a historic landslide in West Bengal — a state it had never before carried — as economic frustration and Hindu nationalist consolidation continue expanding the party's dominance across India

Australia

• Australia is permanently diversifying its oil imports beyond Middle East suppliers and accelerating its renewable energy transition, even as it secures emergency fuel reserves to buffer against the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption

Canada

• Canada approved Enbridge's ~$3 billion Westcoast pipeline expansion, adding 300 million cubic feet per day of capacity as part of PM Carney's push to reduce U.S. trade dependence and boost Asian energy exports

Italy

• Trump publicly broke with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni — once his closest European ally — after she refused to send forces to the Strait of Hormuz and called his attacks on Pope Leo "unacceptable," leaving her isolated on both sides of the Atlantic

Japan

• Japan will release an additional 20 days' worth of oil reserves in early May to stabilize energy prices, as the country relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its crude imports and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked

New Zealand

• New Zealand plans to spend roughly $7 billion on its military, including enhanced strike capabilities and new helicopters, aiming to reverse military attrition by recruiting 2,500 personnel in the coming years

Venezuela

• A Colombian military C-130 carrying 128 people crashed shortly after takeoff in the southern jungle, killing 66, injuring dozens and prompting criticism over long-standing deficiencies in military aircraft and airport infrastructure

Hungary

• Hungarian authorities briefly detained seven Oschadbank employees and confiscated over $80 million in cash and gold from trucks en route to Ukraine, escalating a conflict between the two countries over oil deliveries

Oil Prices

• WTI: $105.71 per barrel
• +10.78% WoW; +41.10% YTD; +67.40% YoY
• Brent: $109.42 per barrel
• +8.03% WoW; +39.30% YTD; +69.56% YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.7 million bpd for the week ended May 8, up 0.1 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 551, up 3 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 452.9 million barrels, up 2.5% YoY
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 91.7% for the week, up from 90.1% in the prior week
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 5.477 million barrels per day, down 1.0% YoY

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $4.53 per gallon in the week of May 15, up 41.9% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $4.45, up 45.4% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $4.49, up 46.8% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $4.05, up 45.2% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $4.51, up 38.1% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $5.75, up 31.7% YoY
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 4.1 million barrels from the prior week
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 215.7 million barrels, down (4.0%) YoY
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.79 million bpd, up 4.3% YoY
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.754 million bpd, down (0.5%) YoY

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by 0.2 million in the week of May 15
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 102.5 million barrels, down (1.0%) YoY
• Distillate production averaged 4.792 million bpd, up 4.6% YoY
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.428 million bpd in the week, down (9.2%) YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 85 billion cubic feet last week
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 2,290 billion cubic feet, up 1.6% YoY

High-yield:

High yield bond yields increased 6 bps to 7.11% and spreads tightened 4bps to 307bps. Leveraged loan yields increased 8bps to 8.61% while spreads tightened 1bps to 479bps. WTD high yield bond returns were negative 9bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 14bps. 10yr treasury yields increased 10bps to 4.48%. High yield spreads tightened despite firm inflation and rising yields, supported by strong earnings, active issuance, and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Leveraged loan prices were flat as investors absorbed heavy issuance, steady inflows, and a Fed outlook implying a ~60% chance of a year-end rate hike. 

Week ended 05/15/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 05/15/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

Most recent defaults include: QVC Group ($2.2bn, 4/16/2026), Cumulus Media ($641mn, 03/05/2026), Trinseo ($390mn, 02/17/2026), Beasley Broadcasting Group ($189mn, 02/01/2026), Nine Energy Service ($300mn, 02/01/2026), Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026), Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), and United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025).

CLOs: 

Week ended 05/15/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM 

Diagram L: CLO Economics 

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index