Consumer price index

• The consumer price index increased by 0.3% in September, below the 0.4% forecast. The yearly rate of inflation rose to 3.0%, reaching a nine-month high
• The core rate of inflation, which excludes food and gas, rose by 0.2% in September, below the 0.3% forecast. The 12-month increase in the core rate rose to 3.0%, above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%
• Most economists predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its next meeting, spurred on by lower-than-expected inflation numbers and concerning labor statistics

Consumer sentiment

• The consumer sentiment index reached 53.6 in October, down 1.5 index points (2.7%) from September and below the 54.9 forecast
• Consumers’ sentiment toward current economic conditions dropped to 58.6, down 1.8 index points (3.0%) from September
• Consumers’ sentiment toward future economic conditions dropped 1.4 index points (2.7%) from September, reaching 50.3 in October

Existing Home Sales

• Existing home sales rose rose by 1.5% in September, to a 4.06 million pace, meeting expectations of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and the Wall Street Journal
• Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and month-over-month sales fell in the Midwest
• Redfin estimated that there were more home sellers than buyers in September. Nearly two million sellers were competing for 1.4 million buyers

U.S. Tariff & Trade‍

• President Trump announced the termination of all trade negotiations with Canada after a provincial advertisement in Ontario criticized U.S. tariffs; the move heightens uncertainty in U.S.–Canada trade relations and raises risk of renewed tariff escalation or border friction impacting cross-border supply chains
• The Trump administration plans to reopen trade talks with Brazil that could lead to lowering the 50% tariff; USTR Jamieson Greer and Secretary of State Marco Rubio held “positive” talks with Brazilian officials and signaled a possible Trump–Lula meeting to advance tariff relief.
• In the first week of new $50-per-net-ton U.S. port fees targeting China’s operated vessels, Cosco and its OOCL subsidiary incurred an estimated $42 million in charges, with annual costs projected to exceed $2 billion if maintained; in a statement, Cosco said it remains committed to the U.S. market and will not pass the fees on to shippers
• After President Trump and Prime Minister Modi spoke this week, reports indicate that India and the U.S. are nearing a trade deal that would reduce tariffs on Indian imports from 50% to 15%; the agreement, centered on energy and agriculture, may see India gradually cut Russian oil imports and allow more U.S. corn and soymeal access; a formal announcement could come at the ASEAN Summit later this month

Jobless Claims

• The jobless claims report was not released last week due to the U.S. government shutdown

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.590 trillion in the week ended October 24, down $6.9 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.196 trillion, down $0.3 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.08 trillion in the week, down $1.4 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.01 trillion as of October 24, an increase of 6.1% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $30.46 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.36 trillion.

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S GDP stands at $30.49 trillion as of June 30, 2025, an increase of 1.48% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 4.59% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 118.78% as of June 30, a decrease of -0.72% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.0% in September year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4% in August.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in September, after rising 0.3% in August.
• Core CPI increased 3.0% for the 12 months ending September.

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.7% in September from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in September month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 3.7% in September from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.1% in September month over month.

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 3.8% in Septemer after increasing 1.7% in August
• The energy commodities index fell (0.4%) over the last 12 months
• The energy services index fell (0.8%) in September after decreasing (0.3%) in August
• The energy services index rose 6.4% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index fell (0.5%) over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index fell 4.1% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 5.1% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 11.7% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $1,746.08 per 40ft container for the week of October 24
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (43.6%) over the last 12 months.

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.2% in August after increasing 0.4% in August
• The rent index increased 0.2% in August after increasing 0.4% in August
• The index for lodging away from home decreased (1.4%) in September after increasing 0.3% in August.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 4.11% , down (0.22%) year to date.

Middle East

• Saudia Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will visit the United States in November, marking his first trip since 2018. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia are preparing a defense cooperation agreement that spans military coordination, arms sales, and intelligence sharing against Iran and terrorism
• The two leaders will also discuss normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. While President Trump expressed optimism that Saudi Arabia would soon sign the Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia expressed concerns about Israel’s increasing willingness to leverage its military might throughout the Middle East
• The Islamic State (ISIS) is reasserting itself as a mobile insurgency, exploiting power vacuums left by the U.S. troop drawdown and the collapse of the Assad regime
• ISIS is no longer a territorial power but now operates as a decentralized network of sleeper cells, conducting ambushes, extortion, and assassinations to further its ends

Europe

• Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy began a five-year prison sentence on Tuesday after being convicted of seeking campaign funds from Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi
• The court’s insistence that Sarkozy begin his sentence before exhausting appeals has sparked political division in the country, as Sarkozy remains a well-respected conservative voice in the country
• The Trump administration lifted a restriction on Ukraine’s use of some long-range missiles capable of striking deep inside Russian territory. The shift comes as President Trump applies increasing pressure on the Kremlin to find a peace agreement with Ukraine
• Ukraine used a British-supplied cruise missile on Tuesday to attack a Russian plant in Bryansk that produced explosives and rocket fuel. While the missiles are supplied by the U.K., the U.S. can restrict use because the missiles use American targeting data

China

• Nearly one-sixth of the 376 officials who held seats on the Central Committee when its term started three years ago were absent from the body’s four-day plenary meeting this week
• The lack of attendance highlights the impact of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s purges and his centralization of power. Party authorities disciplined 889,000 people last year, a 46% increase from 2023
• Both U.S. and Chinese negotiators reported constructive trade talks in Malaysia this week. Discussions covered export controls, tariff suspensions, fentanyl crackdowns, agricultural purchases, rare earths, and the TikTok deal
• While no formal agreements were made, the trade talks in Malaysia lay the framework for further discussions at the expected Trump-Xi summit, which would be the first in-person meeting between the two leaders since Trump began his second term

France

• French police arrested suspects in the Louvre Museum heist, including one attempting to flee France from Charles de Gaulle Airport. Four thieves used a truck-mounted lift and angle grinders to steal eight pieces of jewelry valued at $102 million USD

Venezuela

• Venezuela mobilized troops and militias as President Nicolás Maduro responded to a major U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean, the largest since the 1980s. While Maduro pledged readiness for combat, analysts say Venezuela’s forces are ill-equipped and symbolic against U.S. power, which includes warships, bombers, and special forces deployed under Trump’s anti-narcotics campaign

India

• After President Trump claimed that India agreed to stop buying Russian oil, New Delhi issued a carefully worded response—neither confirming nor directly denying the statement—to avoid jeopardizing ongoing trade talks with Washington. India emphasized its efforts to diversify energy sources and expand U.S. imports, while analysts noted that reducing reliance on Russian crude, which supplies about one-third of India’s oil, would be difficult and costly in the near term

Colombia

• President Trump said the U.S. will immediately cut off all aid and subsidies to Colombia, saying President Gustavo Petro’s government hasn’t done enough to curb drug production. The decision affects over $200 million in U.S. assistance and follows rising tensions between the two countries over anti-narcotics policy

Japan

• Japan’s ruling party leader Sanae Takaichi faces a major obstacle to becoming prime minister after coalition partner Komeito withdrew support over political-finance disputes, leaving her to seek backing from other lawmakers ahead of a potential Trump visit

Haiti

• The HOPE/HELP trade program, which allowed duty-free textile imports from Haiti to the U.S., expired at the end of September, hitting Haiti’s largest industry

Turkey

• President Trump signaled he may lift sanctions on Turkey and sell F-35 jets to Ankara if talks go well, while urging President Erdogan to stop buying Russian energy and highlighting closer U.S.-Turkey cooperation after years of tense relations

Oil Prices

• WTI: $61.50 per barrel
  
• +6.88% WoW; (15.11%) YTD; (13.10%) YoY
• Brent: $65.94 per barrel
  
• +7.59% WoW; (13.55%) YTD; (12.03%) YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.6 million bpd for the week ended October 17, down 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 550, up 2 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 422.8 million barrels, down (0.6) YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 88.6% for the week, up from 85.7%
  in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 5.525 million barrels per day, down (1.0%) YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $3.06 per gallon in the week of
  October 24, down (2.7%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $3.02, down (4.6%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $2.89, down (6.4%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $2.66, down (5.8%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $3.13, down (6.6%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $4.30, up 3.0% YoY.
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 2.1 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 216.7 million barrels, up 2.8% YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.59 million bpd, down (1.0%) YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.454 million bpd, down (7.7%) YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by -1.5 million in the week of October 24
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 115.6 million barrels, up 2.4% YoY
• Distillate production averaged 4.632 million bpd, down (4.8%) YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.847 million bpd in the week, down (0.9%) YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 87 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 3,808 billion cubic feet, down (1.4%) YoY.

High-yield:

High yield bond yields decreased 6bps to 6.89% and spreads decreased 7bps to 335bps. Leveraged loan yields increased 5bps to 7.80% and spreads decreased 2bps to 459bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 12bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 12bps. 10yr treasury yields increased 1bp to 3.99%. High yield bond spreads tightened on light issuance, easing outflows, and encouraging early earnings. Leveraged loan spreads also tightened modestly, despite loan funds posting a second consecutive week of outflows. Capital markets activity remains muted, marking the slowest post-Labor Day period, while benign CPI and stronger PMI data reinforced expectations for a 25bps Fed cut this week.

Week ended 10/24/2025

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 10/24/2025

Yields & Spreads¹

Leveraged Loan Index¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Todal Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity:

• Most recent defaults include: Astra Acquisition ($1bn, 9/30/2025), First Brands ($4.4bn, 9/29/2025), Spirit Airlines ($852mn, 8/29/2025), ModivCare ($1.1bn, 8/20/2025), Anastasia Beverly Hills ($606mn, 8/11/2025), Claire’s Stores ($506mn, 8/6/2025), Maverick Gaming ($215mn, 7/17/2025), Del Monte Foods ($864mn, 7/2/2025), Everstream ($495mn, 5/28/2025), and At Home ($1.6bn, 5/15/2025).

CLOs:

Week ended 10/24/2025

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

Note:High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

‍Diagram L: CLO Economics

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts

Diagram R: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram S: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram T: SOFR CURVE

Diagram U: CMBS Spreads

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index