Existing Home Sales

• Existing home sales dropped 3.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million — the lowest since June 2025 — well below economists' forecast of a 1% decline
• Mortgage rates, which had briefly dipped below 6% in late February, climbed back up after the start of the war with Iran, prompting NAR to slash its 2026 sales growth forecast from 14% to 4% 
• Buyers remain hesitant due to high home prices, economic uncertainty, and rising rates, with the typical home now sitting on the market for 41 days, up from 36 days a year ago 

Producer Price Index

• March's producer price index rose just 0.5% — well below the 1.1% consensus estimate — with core PPI up only 0.1%, as flat services costs offset an energy-driven surge in goods prices
• Energy was the main driver of the increase, with gasoline up 15.7%, diesel soaring 42%, and jet fuel climbing 30.7% 
• Despite the softer-than-feared monthly reading, annual PPI hit 4%, its highest since February 2023

Home Builder Confidence

• The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell four points to 34 in April — a seven-month low — missing economists' forecast of 37 and marking 24 consecutive months below the 50 break-even threshold
• The war with Iran is squeezing builders from multiple directions, with 62% reporting supplier price hikes due to higher fuel costs
• Builders are pulling back on buyer incentives as 70% of builders say they're struggling to price homes amid material cost uncertainty

Jobless Claims 

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 207,000 in the week ended April 10, down 11,000 from the prior week
• The four-week moving average was 209,750, up 500 from the prior week
• Continuing claims – those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week – increased at 1.818 million in the week ended April 3. This figure is reported with a one-week lag

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.706 trillion in the week ended April 17, up $11.8 billion from the prior week
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.407 trillion, up $7.4 billion from the prior week
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.00 trillion in the week, down $0.1 billion from the prior week

Total Public Debt 

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.99 trillion as of April 17, an increase of 7.6% from the previous year
• Debt held by the public was $31.36 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.63 trillion

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $31.44 trillion as of December 31, 2025, an increase of 1.11% from the previous quarter, & an increase of 5.42% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 122.49% as of December 31, an increase of 1.05% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.3% in March year over year
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.9% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.3% in February
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in March, after rising 0.2% in February
• Core CPI increased 2.6% for the 12 months ending March

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.0% in March from the same month a year earlier, and decreased -0.2% in March month over month
• The food away from home index increased 3.8% in March from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.2% in March month over month

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 21.3% in March after increasing 1.1% in February
• The energy commodities index rose 19.4% over the last 12 months
• The energy services index fell (0.2%) in March after decreasing (0.1%) in February
• The energy services index rose 5.0% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index rose 18.9% over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index rose 44.2% over the last 12 months
• The index for electricity rose 4.6% over the last 12 months
• The index for natural gas rose 6.4% over the last 12 months

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $2,308.78 per 40 ft container for the week of April 10
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has increased by 1.9% over the last 12 months

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.3% in March after increasing 0.2% in February
• The rent index increased 0.3% in March after increasing 0.2% in February
• The index for lodging away from home increased 4.6% in March after increasing 3.8% in February

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.64%, flat 0.00% year to date

Middle East

• Trump announced historic Israel-Lebanon peace talks alongside a 10-day ceasefire, but Hezbollah's exclusion from negotiations and cool rejection of the truce puts any lasting deal on shaky ground 
• Lebanon's government has taken unprecedented steps against Hezbollah, including banning its military activities, but lacks the enforcement capability to actually disarm the group
• The U.S. is expanding its naval blockade to target Iran's entire shadow fleet globally, betting that cutting off oil exports will force Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — with analysts warning Iran could hit storage capacity and be forced to shut down wells within weeks
• Iran has buffers to absorb short-term pain, including ~160 million barrels already loaded on tankers at sea and a history of evading sanctions, but the blockade threatens to strip away the asymmetrical advantage Tehran exploited throughout the war

Europe

• Eurozone industrial output unexpectedly rose 0.4% in February, beating forecasts of a 0.1% decline, but economists warn the Middle East war's impact on energy prices will weigh heavily on the sector from March onward 
• The IMF cut its 2026 eurozone growth forecast to 1.1% citing risks of a "major energy crisis," with Germany's Ifo Institute flagging that energy-intensive industries like automotive, chemical, and pharmaceutical are already feeling the war's impact 
• Europe is quietly accelerating a "European NATO" contingency plan, with Germany's historic reversal on defense sovereignty unlocking broad buy-in from allies including the U.K., France, and the Nordics 
• The plan faces steep hurdles, as no European nation can quickly replace U.S. satellite systems or the continent-wide nuclear umbrella underpinning NATO's deterrence 

China

• China's economy grew 5% in Q1, beating expectations, but export growth slowed sharply to 2.5% in March from 22% earlier in the year 
• China is relatively insulated on the production side thanks to oil stockpiles and renewable energy dominance, but tepid household spending, a deepening property slump, and vulnerable trading partners cloud the outlook
• Ahead of Trump's May Beijing visit, China is rolling out sweeping but deliberately vague new regulations empowering authorities to punish foreign companies that drop Chinese suppliers or comply with U.S. trade restrictions 
• The rules put Western businesses in a bind — comply with U.S. restrictions and risk expulsion from China's manufacturing hub, or stay and risk running afoul of Washington

Italy

• Trump publicly broke with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni — once his closest European ally — after she refused to send forces to the Strait of Hormuz and called his attacks on Pope Leo "unacceptable," leaving her isolated on both sides of the Atlantic

Japan

• Japan will release an additional 20 days' worth of oil reserves in early May to stabilize energy prices, as the country relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its crude imports and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked

New Zealand

• New Zealand plans to spend roughly $7 billion on its military, including enhanced strike capabilities and new helicopters, aiming to reverse military attrition by recruiting 2,500 personnel in the coming years

Venezuela

• A Colombian military C-130 carrying 128 people crashed shortly after takeoff in the southern jungle, killing 66, injuring dozens and prompting criticism over long-standing deficiencies in military aircraft and airport infrastructure

Cuba

• Cuba’s nationwide blackout – driven by an obsolete, oil-dependent power grid and worsened by U.S. oil restrictions – has crippled basic services, intensified economic collapse, and fueled growing social unrest, with no near-term fix in sight

India

• Over 400,000 metric tons of Indian basmati rice are stranded at ports as the Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern shipping lanes, threatening roughly 75% of India's annual basmati rice exports

Hungary

• Hungarian authorities briefly detained seven Oschadbank employees and confiscated over $80 million in cash and gold from trucks en route to Ukraine, escalating a conflict between the two countries over oil deliveries

Canada

• Canada and India signed agreements to deepen ties in critical minerals, energy, and trade, aiming to reduce Canada’s reliance on the United States

North Korea

• According to South Korean intelligence, Kim Jong Un’s daughter Kim Ju Ae is increasingly positioned to succeed her father as Supreme Leader of North Korea. Until recently, she was the only child of Kim Jong Un to never be shown in public

Oil Prices

• WTI: $83.85 per barrel
• (13.17%) WoW; +11.92% YTD; +34.22% YoY
• Brent: $92.11 per barrel
• (3.25%) WoW; +17.26% YTD; +35.54% YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.6 million bpd for the week ended April 10, down 0.1 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 545, down 2 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 463.8 million barrels, up 4.7% YoY
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 89.6% for the week, down from 92.0% in the prior week
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.324 million barrels per day, down (11.8%) YoY

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $4.08 per gallon in the week of April 17, up 28.9% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $4.07, up 30.1% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.97, up 28.6% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $3.84, up 34.8% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $4.03, up 25.1% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $5.51, up 25.1% YoY
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 6.3 million barrels from the prior week
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 232.9 million barrels, down (0.5%) YoY
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.76 million bpd, up 3.7% YoY
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 9.088 million bpd, up 7.4% YoY

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by -3.1 million in the week of April 17
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 111.6 million barrels, up 2.1% YoY
• Distillate production averaged 4.866 million bpd, up 3.8% YoY
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.840 million bpd in the week, down (0.5%) YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 59 billion cubic feet last week
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 1,970 billion cubic feet, up 6.7% YoY

High-yield:

High yield bond yields decreased 4bps to 7.05% and spreads tightened 4bps to 320bps. Leveraged loan yields decreased 5bps to 8.54% and spreads decreased 6bps to 498bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 30bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 30bps. 10yr treasury yields increased 4bps to 4.31%. High-yield spreads narrowed to their tightest level in two months, driven by growing optimism that the U.S. and Iran could secure a lasting ceasefire. Similarly, leveraged loan spreads compressed inside 500 bps for the first time since February due to receding geopolitical tensions and limited primary market activity.

Week ended 04/17/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

‍

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 04/17/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

Most recent defaults include: Cumulus Media ($641mn, 03/05/2026), Trinseo ($390mn, 02/17/2026), Beasley Broadcasting Group ($189mn, 02/01/2026), Nine Energy Service ($300mn, 02/01/2026), Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026), Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025), and New Fortress Energy ($3.5bn, 11/15/2025).

CLOs: 

Week ended 04/17/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

‍

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM 

Diagram L: CLO Economics 

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index