US Consumer Confidence Index

• The Conference Board index fell 0.8 points to 89.4, the lowest since January, from a downwardly revised 90.2 in July; economists polled by Reuters had forecast 90.2 against an originally reported 90.8. The reading sits well below the 100 breakeven line for a second consecutive monthly decline.
• Present Situation rose 6.8 points to 121.2, its first gain in four months, driven by labor-market perception: the "plentiful" minus "hard to get" differential widened 4.8pp to +7.5%, the highest this year. Current business conditions were flat at +1.3%.
• Expectations fell 5.8 points to 68.2, with all three components down — business conditions to −6.3%, six-month labor market to −11.5%, household income to +3.8%. Consumers expecting more jobs fell to 14.6% from 16.4%; those expecting fewer rose to 26.1%.

PCE Index

• Core PCE rose 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY, both in line with consensus; headline PCE rose 0.2% MoM against 0.1% expected, with the annual rate holding at 3.7% versus 3.6% forecast. Personal income rose 0.4% ($115.1bn) and nominal PCE 0.2% ($36.3bn), both above expectations; real PCE was flat after a 0.4% June gain. The saving rate recovered to 3.0% from a four-year low of 2.6% in June. Core PCE remains 1.3pp above the Fed's 2% target; headline 1.7pp above.
• Services spending rose $86.2bn while goods spending fell $49.9bn. On prices, goods declined 0.1% on a 2.7% drop in gasoline and energy goods and a 0.9% fall in furnishings and durable household equipment; services prices rose 0.3%, led by a 1.2% increase in financial services and insurance and a 0.3% gain in housing. Disposable income rose 0.5%, the strongest after-tax gain since January.
• Market reaction as a result of the PCE release was muted: the 10-year rose 1bp to 4.649%, the 2-year less than 1bp to 4.213%, and the 30-year eased fractionally to 5.17%; in-line core prevented a selloff despite the hot headline. September hike odds moved to 36%.

Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole Keynote

• Warsh said inflation remains above the 2% goal and hinted rates could need to move higher absent more progress, while stopping short of signaling a September move. He placed responsibility for 65 months of sustained elevated inflation squarely with the central bank, and framed his position as a commitment to a discipline rather than to a decision.
• The new Fed Chair claimed better-than-expected CPI and PCE prints "do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved"; Warsh called the economy strengthened and attributed slower hiring to flattening labor supply, not weak demand — removing the labor market as a dovish offset.
• Hike odds diverged rather than converged: CME FedWatch 42% (from 35%), Kalshi 48% (from ~30%), Morningstar citing nearly 60% from below 40%. That spread is the signal — September is genuinely unpriced. August CPI on Sept. 11 is the last major inflation read before the Sept. 15–16 FOMC, and August PCE — the Fed's actual target gauge — doesn't publish until after. Goldman's Hatzius expects core near 0.2% and the FOMC on hold; other analysts say Warsh has little option but to hike this year if inflation stays above 2%.

Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 206,000 in the week ended August 14, down 6,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 204,000, up 4,250 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims — those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week — increased at 1.799 million in the week ended August 7. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed's Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.731 trillion in the week ended August 28, down $14.8 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.546 trillion, up $7.0 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $1.92 trillion in the week, down $7.6 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $40.08 trillion as of August 28, an increase of 7.4% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $32.31 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.73 trillion.

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $32.48 trillion as of June 30, 2026, an increase of 1.91% from the previous quarter, & an increase of 6.53% from the previous year.
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 121.52% as of June 30, an increase of 2.73% from the previous year.

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.4% in July year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.1% in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, after decreasing (0.4%) in June.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in July, after falling 0.0% in June.
• Core CPI increased 2.5% for the 12 months ending July.

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.6% in July from the same month a year earlier, and decreased (0.1%) in July month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 3.4% in July from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in July month over month.

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index decreased (2.9%) in July after decreasing (9.5%) in June.
• The energy commodities index rose 24.7% over the last 12 months.
• The energy services index rose 0.1% in July after increasing 1.5% in June.
• The energy services index rose 4.3% over the last 12 months.
• The gasoline index rose 24.6% over the last 12 months.
• The fuel oil index rose 39.1% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 4.2% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 4.3% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain:

• Drewry's composite World Container Index decreased to $4,472.88 per 40ft container for the week of August 28.
• Drewry's composite World Container Index has increased by 111.1% over the last 12 months.

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.1% in July after increasing 0.1% in June.
• The rent index increased 0.1% in July after increasing 0.1% in June.
• The index for lodging away from home decreased (3.4%) in July after decreasing (2.5%) in June.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.63%, down (0.01%) year to date.

Money Market Funds

• Money market fund assets stood at $7.93 trillion as of August 26, 2026, up 0.1% from the previous week, & up 10.1% from the previous year.

Middle East

• Bessent unveiled Monday what he called an economic onslaught against Iran's financial connections, targeting a network of brokers, companies and shadow-fleet vessels across the UAE, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Switzerland and Europe, plus remaining global branches of Bank Melli. Asked whether Chinese banks could be hit, he said no one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions, and that entities facilitating transactions in the ecosystem turning Iranian oil into money will be targeted. Trump is personally calling world leaders with requests to cease dealings with Tehran, and countries are being given time before major action.
• Iran and Oman agreed a revenue-sharing framework for the strait, with Tehran stressing the arrangement does not guarantee immediate reopening; separately, the Trump administration told mediators it has no interest in returning to the terms of the June preliminary deal that later collapsed. Iran's foreign ministry called the new sanctions an assertion of extraterritorial sovereignty over UN member states. Diplomatic progress is real but partial — underwrite continued Hormuz disruption through year-end.
• The EIA expects it will take until early 2027 for production and trade patterns to return to pre-conflict status, and anticipates some Persian Gulf producers will not restore output to pre-conflict averages at all. Global oil inventories are estimated to have fallen by an average of 4.2 million b/d, and the EIA forecasts prices remain elevated until flows normalize and inventories are replenished. A new blockade threat on Saudi exports via Bab el-Mandeb adds risk to the primary Hormuz alternative; Suez and the Sumed pipeline are slower, costlier and capacity-limited. Underwrite elevated energy costs through FY27, not as a transitory FY26 shock.

Europe

• The Ifo Business Climate Index rose from 86.6 in July to 88.8 in August, which Capital Economics said — alongside the detailed Q2 GDP release — adds to evidence of surprising resilience and supports near-term ECB policy tightening. Combined with the prior week's four-year-high flash manufacturing PMI, German industrial credits remain the strongest European sector story.
• ECB Minutes released August 27 emphasized that July's hold should not be read as the end of tightening, with another hike likely unless the inflation outlook improves significantly, while policymakers wanted to keep the September 15–16 decision open. The ECB said the energy-price outlook remains broadly in line with June projections despite volatility, warning the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to land. Vanguard expects one further increase, likely September.
• Iceland's Aug. 29 referendum on restarting EU accession talks polls neck-and-neck with a slight tilt to "no" (June Gallup: 39% for, 46% against; two-thirds of the business federation opposed), and matters less for Iceland than as a test of whether the EU can still expand on demand — Brussels is offering real concessions on fisheries to secure a success story ahead of a late-September proposal replacing unanimity with qualified-majority voting.
• Fitch affirmed France's A+ sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook but cautioned that persistently high fiscal deficits (Fitch projected ~5.2%) and rising public debt pose growing risks. The agency warned that failure to make meaningful progress on deficit reduction could result in a negative outlook and potentially a future downgrade.

China

• Treasury's "Operation Economic Outcast," launched Aug. 24, targets Iran's oil-revenue network, with Bessent stating Chinese banks are not exempt — China being Iran's largest crude buyer. China's foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said sanctions and pressure tactics are not the solution and called for a political and diplomatic approach, while Beijing warned the measures will only further intensify tensions. With a fragile trade truce in place since the May Beijing summit and Xi due in Washington in late September, that visit is the near-term binding constraint on how far Washington actually pushes secondary sanctions against Chinese banks.
• China is ramping up tax enforcement amid fiscal pressures, with more than 100 listed companies facing ¥7.7B ($1.1B) of back taxes and penalties in 1H26, including cases where tax assessments exceeded annual profits; June alone accounted for ¥3.5B of clawbacks. Authorities have also expanded scrutiny of cross-border brokerage accounts, offshore trusts, and overseas insurance policies used by high-net-worth individuals. The crackdown is weighing on luxury spending, casinos, and Hong Kong equities.
• China and India agreed to advance negotiations toward a long-term settlement of their border dispute, signaling continued improvement in relations following the 2020 border clashes. The talks pave the way for deeper economic and diplomatic engagement, with President Xi expected to visit India next month and both sides committing to further negotiations on border demarcation and management.

Americas

• Negotiations broke down late Friday August 21 before a midnight deadline, with 50% duties taking effect on roughly $20 billion of Canadian products including dairy, alcoholic beverages, cement, building materials, hockey equipment and certain clothing. Carney called the tariffs a miscalculation and blamed uneconomic and unfair US demands; he said Canada is at war, having been attacked.
• Talks collapsed after last-minute pressure from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, per people familiar with the matter, leaving Trump to impose tariffs and Carney to vow retaliation. Bloomberg separately reported the US is weighing further trade measures against Canada in response to the retaliation. Escalation risk is not priced as resolved — sponsors should not underwrite a near-term deal.
• Canada's retaliatory tariffs are strategically targeting U.S. exports from politically important and battleground states such as Ohio, Michigan, Maine, and Alaska, increasing pressure on Republican candidates ahead of the midterm elections. The escalating trade dispute, including additional Canadian measures on U.S. alcohol and potential U.S. counter-retaliation, raises uncertainty for cross-border supply chains, trade-sensitive industries, and North American economic relations.
• Mexico returned to the Samurai bond market for the first time in two years, raising ¥282.8 billion ($1.77 billion) across four tranches as issuers rush to secure funding ahead of potential Bank of Japan rate hikes. The deal attracted 52 global investors and highlights Mexico's continued access to international capital markets despite mounting sovereign credit pressures, including a negative outlook from S&P and a Moody's downgrade to the lowest investment-grade rating.

Japan

• Kioxia and Sandisk plan to invest more than ¥5 trillion to expand NAND flash memory production in Japan, including a ¥1.8 trillion facility for advanced 3D flash chips. The investment reflects rising AI-driven demand for data center storage, while Japan's expected government support underscores its strategic push to strengthen domestic semiconductor capabilities and supply-chain resilience.

Africa

• South Africa is preparing its inaugural sovereign green bond, potentially this fiscal year, to help fund an estimated 3.7 trillion rand climate-transition agenda. Proceeds are expected to support projects such as green hydrogen, hydropower, and energy-efficiency initiatives, with the government aiming to mobilize up to $8 billion annually by 2030.

Venezuela

• Venezuela is reportedly considering withdrawing from OPEC as part of a broader geopolitical and energy-policy realignment following political changes in Caracas and increased engagement with the U.S. An exit would mark a significant shift for a founding OPEC member and could further weaken the cartel's cohesion, while potentially giving Venezuela greater flexibility over production and exports as it seeks to revive its oil sector and attract investment.

India

• Modi's 80th Independence Day address reaffirmed the developed-economy-by-2047 target, with semiconductors, AI and nuclear at the center of industrial strategy: AI training for 1 crore (10mn) youth over the next year, seven to eight new semiconductor plants within one to two years on top of three already in production, and 100 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047 enabled by the SHANTI Act, with five reactors to be commissioned this decade against current capacity under 9 GW. He framed energy security explicitly around the weaponization of strategic sea routes.

Colombia

• Colombia's incoming government plans to reinstate fiscal borrowing limits and introduce a fiscal adjustment package to restore investor confidence and address widening deficits. Despite these efforts, the 2027 budget projects a sizeable 9.4% fiscal deficit, a more than 50% increase in debt-service costs to 155 trillion pesos, and approximately 239 trillion pesos of new borrowing.

Cuba

• Cuba's population fell to 9.4 million in 2025 as emigration and demographic decline accelerated, with net outflows of 245,000 people alongside just 68,000 births versus 136,000 deaths. The trend underscores the severe economic challenges facing the country amid ongoing sanctions, while the U.S. has pledged $100 million in humanitarian aid, including food and hygiene assistance for vulnerable households.

Australia

• Australia's household spending remained resilient in July, rising 1.1% month-over-month and 7.0% year-over-year, well above the 5.7% consensus forecast. Broad-based strength across discretionary categories such as recreation, culture, and health suggests consumer demand remains a key support for economic growth despite higher interest rates.

Nepal

• The Nepal-Tibet flash floods have become one of the deadliest natural disasters in the region in years, with at least 586 confirmed deaths and more than 2,400 people still missing, including hundreds of foreign tourists and workers. Rescue efforts remain severely constrained by washed-out roads, damaged infrastructure, power outages, and the continued risk of flooding, raising concerns that casualties could rise further.

Italy

• Italy extended fuel tax relief through Sept. 5 to ease pressure on consumers facing rising fuel prices ahead of next year's expected general election, with the support measure funded by accelerated tax collections from large energy companies.

Egypt

• Egypt has emerged as a new front in the U.S.-China AI race, with Huawei bidding to supply 2,008 AI chips and build a data center, potentially marking the first export of its Ascend AI accelerators. The U.S. is countering with Nvidia-backed alternatives and regulatory pressure to prevent Huawei from replicating its telecom playbook in AI infrastructure.

Oil Prices

• WTI: $83.40 per barrel
• (4.20%) WoW; +11.32% YTD; +30.01% YoY
• Brent: $89.31 per barrel
• (5.38%) WoW; +13.70% YTD; +30.15% YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.8 million bpd for the week ended August 21, up 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 588, flat from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 428.9 million barrels, up 2.5% YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 97.4% for the week, up from 97.2% in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.593 million barrels per day, down (1.2%) YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $4.08 per gallon in the week of August 28, up 27.5% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $4.04, up 30.2% YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $4.02, up 27.3% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $3.74, up 33.9% YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $4.50, up 37.0% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $5.27, up 24.5% YoY.
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 2.5 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 206.8 million barrels, down (7.0%) YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.77 million bpd, down (2.1%) YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 9.043 million bpd, down (2.1%) YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by (2.2) million in the week of August 28.
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 103.4 million barrels, down (9.5%) YoY.
• Distillate production averaged 5.135 million bpd, down (1.6%) YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.839 million bpd in the week, down (7.3%) YoY.

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 15 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 3,184 billion cubic feet, down (1.0%) YoY.

High-yield:

High yield bond yields decreased 4bps to 7.22% and spreads tightened 9bps to 286bps. Leveraged loan yields were unchanged at 8.87% and spread tightened 4bp to 476bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 33bps and WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 22bps. High-yield bond & leveraged loan spreads decreased in a week encompassing very little macro surprises and no capital market activity. Positioning, however, diverged across the two asset classes, with high-yield funds experiencing a $1.5bn outflow - the largest in five months while loan funds saw $407mm of inflows for the ninth consecutive week.

Week ended 08/28/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 08/28/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity:

• Most recent defaults include: Hughes Satellite Systems ($1.5bn, 8/2/2026), Unifrax Investment ($3.1bn, 7/26/2026), Dish DBS ($9.8bn, 6/30/2026), QVC Group ($2.2bn, 4/16/2026), Cumulus Media ($641mn, 03/05/2026), Trinseo ($390mn, 02/17/2026), Beasley Broadcasting Group ($189mn, 02/01/2026), Nine Energy Service ($300mn, 02/01/2026), Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), and Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026).

CLOs:

Week ended 08/28/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:

S&P and Moody's High Yield Ratings

Source: Bloomberg

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Source: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

Source: JP Morgan Default Monitor

Diagram L: CLO Economics

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Source: S&P Capital IQ

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Source: Pitchbook

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Source: Pitchbook

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Source: Bloomberg

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Source: Bloomberg

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads

Source: Bloomberg